Hungary headed for change of government?
Hungarians will elect a new parliament on 12 April. The Tisza Party led by Péter Magyar has emerged as Viktor Orbán's Fidesz party's main rival and is leading most of the pre-election polls. Commentators discuss whether Fidesz could actually be voted out after sixteen years in power, and what is at stake here.
Uphill battle
Simply winning the election won't be enough to destroy Orbán's power, Gazeta Wyborcza concludes:
“The election campaign in Hungary is uneven because Fidesz has the most resources (both organisational and financial). To come to power, Tisza must win by a clear margin. ... Owing to changes in the constituency boundaries that favour Fidesz, Magyar's party must achieve a lead of around ten percentage points to gain a majority in parliament. And even that may not be enough to dismantle the mechanisms that protect Orbán's state apparatus. The most important laws, such as those that place state assets under the control of people loyal to the prime minister, require a two-thirds majority in parliament.”
Tirades against EU and Ukraine, silence on Russia
Der Standard columnist Paul Lendvai criticises the Hungarian prime minister's double standards in foreign policy:
“Just under two months before the next Hungarian parliamentary elections, Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, who is under pressure from Tisza, the strong opposition party, has launched a new hate campaign against Ukraine. All means of mass communication are being used to stoke fears of war, to portray Ukraine and the EU as enemies and to cast the Orbán government as the sole guarantor of peace and security. ... Unlike the hate campaign portraying the EU and Ukraine as warmongers, the Russian and Chinese dictatorships are not criticised in any way.”
Not everyone copes well with uncertainty
Tisza voters are putting predictability at risk, the pro-government newspaper Vasárnap warns:
“Those who truly feel that the situation is so dire that anything, even total uncertainty, would be better, should courageously vote for Tisza. Those who have nothing to lose can take the risk. But those who feel that their lives are manageable and predictable and that they have a vision for the future should think about where this could lead if we destroy everything we've achieved so far and start from scratch. ... A radical change of system and government does not mean that the good things will remain and the bad will be improved. ... It is quite uncertain what the outcome would be.”
The Orbán system is collapsing
The long-serving prime minister is no longer a guarantee of stability, Népszava warns:
“On 12 April the battle will not end, but only begin. And it hardly matters who the extremely distorted Hungarian electoral system, manipulated in a thousand ways, ultimately declares the winner, because he will exist in a completely new reality anyway. ... The [Orbán] system is failing and has begun to disintegrate. The basic conditions for Orbán's unprecedented, astonishing power - EU funding, the global economic situation, support from Germany and a weak opposition - have disappeared or are in the process of being eliminated. And even if Orbán remains in power, he cannot guarantee the stability of his system.”
At least Fidesz has a clear path
The opposition's foreign policy concept is inadequate, Index maintains:
“The opposition party's main message is that under the Tisza Party's leadership the country would opt for Europe ... But today it is no longer clear what the future holds for Europe. ... You can criticise the Orbán government's foreign policy strategy, but you can't say it has none, or that it hasn't developed one or made it public yet. ... In a world where the old order no longer functions and the new one has not yet emerged, the more dangerous option is for a country to have no strategic vision or plan at all, or to cling desperately to the rules of the crumbling old order.”