Four years of war in Ukraine: is there a way out?
Exactly four years after Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, commemorative events for the victims of the war are being held in Ukraine and other countries across the world. Commentators reflect on these four years of death, destruction, hardship and suffering in Ukraine, and on how the war could end.
Neither side will achieve its goals
There is no end in sight to the conflict for the time being, writes political scientist José Pedro Teixeira Fernandes in Público:
“It seems unlikely that the conflict will be finally resolved in 2026. A complete victory for either side appears implausible. Russia has shown no ability to achieve a military breakthrough that would drastically change the front line in its favour. Nor does Ukraine have the necessary means to drive out the Russian forces, at least not at this point in time. ... The most optimistic hypothesis is a ceasefire that freezes the positions on the ground, whether due to exhausted resources, strong external political pressure, or a combination of both.”
Not even the red carpet was enough
Delfi columnist Rimvydas Valatka rails:
“When will the war end? That's the wrong question. The question should be: When will Russia decide to end the war? Or more precisely: When will Russia no longer be able to wage war? ... For over a year, Trump has been offering Russia an unprecedented opportunity to extricate itself from the war trap it manoeuvred itself into on the morning of 24 February 2022. It could keep the occupied part of Ukraine, with the US rolling out the red carpet, lifting sanctions and bringing back Western investment. You don't turn down deals like that. Even the dumbest dictator would accept them. With one exception: Russia.”
Peace effort abandoned
For Naftemporiki too little is being done to improve security:
“Only the European political elite – not the entire population – is supporting Ukraine by purchasing American weapons to send to Kyiv so that the Ukrainians can fight the Russians as representatives of the EU. And so that Europe's massive rearmament can be justified. ... Not a word about a new security architecture that would guarantee peace for everyone on the Old Continent. ... The so-called 'coalition of the willing' has poured hundreds of billions of euros into Ukraine's war effort, thereby massively weakening the EU and many of its member states economically and politically. The obvious thing would be to strive for peace, but this effort seems to have been abandoned.”
More missiles could tip the balance
De Volkskrant comments:
“Putin's problems are piling up, the costs are mounting - but according to Putin's calculations, they're still not high enough to warrant a radical change. Stopping now also carries risks for him and his system. There is only one way to decisively influence this calculation: to further increase the price of Putin's senseless war. ... Only if Ukraine's refusal to submit to Moscow is accompanied by European perseverance can Putin be forced to back down. This also means that long-range weapons must be supplied on a large scale to knock some weapons out of Putin's hands.”
Between solidarity and self-assertion
Europe must walk a fine line, La Libre Belgique urges:
“Helping Ukraine is not an emotional decision, it's a strategic obligation. It's about defending the European security architecture. ... But helping does not mean turning a blind eye. ... Today we are rediscovering that deterrence is a prerequisite for peace and that we must invest in our armies, ammunition and defence industry once again. ... Support Ukraine, yes. But without weakening our own foundations, public finances or defence capabilities. Helping the Ukrainians without weakening ourselves - that is the fine line we must tread. It's a narrow, politically uncomfortable path, but one that is indispensable in order to remain coherent and perhaps one day find peace again.”
No one believes forecasts anymore
Another of the casualties of this war is the loss of forecasts' credibility, Diena notes:
“If we look dispassionately at all the statements about this war, what stands out is the large number of inaccurate predictions. In 2022, shortly before 24 February, various people categorically stated that there would be no Russian attack on Ukraine. When news emerged of Russian military forces bombing Ukrainian cities, destroying homes, and creating streams of refugees, they had to admit that their predictions were wrong. Over the next four years, various forecasts were repeatedly made that also proved to be wrong. ... The war has contributed to a loss of confidence in forecasts of any kind, no matter how categorically they are formulated.”
Europe standing up to Putin
We must live with the Russian threat, concludes La Vanguardia:
“By mid-2026 the conflict will have lasted longer than the First World War, and the positions remain irreconcilable. ... The number of casualties (soldiers killed, wounded or missing) on both sides will reach the chilling figure of two million this spring. ... In this scenario, Europeans argue that Putin must not be allowed to win because this would pave the way for further Russian aggression. The biggest fear in Europe's capitals is that pressure on Zelensky could produce a false end to the war, after which Putin could rearm and strike again. This conflict has transformed Europe, forcing it to adapt to a new scenario and coexist with the Russian threat.”
Even peace won't be easy
Europe must prepare for the day after the war, writes Expresso:
“In 2022, no one would have thought a war of territorial conquest on the European continent would be possible. And no one would have thought that a war could last four years, causing enormous damage, destruction and death. Four years later, the unimaginable has become commonplace. ... Peace - unjust, imperfect and fragile - could come this year. Paradoxically, this moment will be even more challenging for the EU than the war. For while war is almost always temporary, peace is expected to be lasting. Decisions, efforts and circumstantial contributions will become permanent.”
Be prepared for robots on the front lines
Political scientist Nikolai Mitrokhin outlines on Facebook the current situation and offers a glimpse of the future:
“Ukraine is holding its own on the front lines, but the functionality of its energy system hangs by a thread, which could have significant consequences. Russia has neither sufficient troops nor new technologies for decisive and successful offensives, but it can break through Ukrainian defences in some narrow sections at the cost of tens of thousands of lives and advance at a rate of about three kilometres per month. We don't yet know what will happen when and if companies of combat humanoid robots are brought in from China, but we must prepare for this, as it could happen quite soon.”
A land of heros - and heroines
The Salzburger Nachrichten focuses on the women of Ukraine:
“The image of war is no longer exclusively male. Women are represented in all areas of the military. They fight in trenches near the front line, fly drones and treat the seriously wounded. ... Like their male comrades, they risk their lives for their country every day. But there is also an invisible front. Many Ukrainian women are ensuring that life and everyday routines continue away from the fighting. ... In addition to their paid work, a great number of them are single mothers. ... When this war is over, heroic stories will be told. We can only hope that the heroines will not be forgotten.”