Where does Hungary stand on Russia and Ukraine now?
Under Viktor Orbán, despite EU and Nato membership Hungary's position was pro-Russian and anti-Ukraine. After his election victory Péter Magyar has made it clear that: "Ukraine is the victim in this war." And if Putin calls, he will tell him to "stop the killing after four years". The media discuss what the new Hungarian stance on the two warring parties could mean.
Pragmatism will replace antagonism
We will soon see a change in direction in Budapest, political scientist Ihor Petrenko claims in a Facebook post republished in Glavkom:
“Hungary will stop predictably blocking everything. The vetos against military aid to Ukraine will very likely be lifted – because that's the price for Budapest's return to the European fold. The anti-Ukraine rhetoric at state level will gradually disappear. We should not expect a warm friendship, however. It will be a pragmatic, neighbourly relationship in which both sides pursue their own interests. And to be honest, this is all Ukraine has ever needed from Hungary.”
No real change for Kyiv or Brussels
Political scientist Nikolay Mitrokhin predicts in Facebook that Budapest's foreign policy will remain largely unchanged:
“The election in Hungary means that the Kremlin has lost a faithful ally, but Ukraine and the EU have certainly not gained a partner who agrees with them on everything. ... Hungary has long-term interests and these do not coincide with Ukraine's interests or those of pro-Ukrainian parties in the EU or EU capitals. This means that under Magyar we might see a change in political style and relations with the Kremlin, but the objectives remain the same. Hungary still needs cheap Russian oil and gas, it is against an accelerated Ukrainian EU accession and it will continue to push for language rights for the Hungarian minority in Ukraine.”
Moscow can still use cheap energy as bait
Delfi points out that the alternatives to Russian oil are very expensive:
“Even without Orbán, Budapest will continue its dialogue with Moscow. Magyar has already written on Facebook that talks with Putin about energy resources will be necessary. He pointed out that there would be no change to the geological location of either country, nor to Hungary's energy dependence on Russia. But Moscow has always used energy resources as an instrument to exert influence and pressure. Magyar's statement that he wishes to diversify Hungary's oil imports is credible. Replacing the available Russian oil with 'acceptable' alternatives, however, would cost about four times as much.”
Another election defeat for the Kremlin
Russian campaign consultants did not do Orbán any favours, writes political analyst Viktor Shlinchak on Facebook:
“Instead they seem to have stirred up the discussion among Hungarians about Russian influence. ... Therecordings of conversations between Orbán and Szijjártó and their counterparts in the Kremlin reinforced the impression that the Hungarian leadership is to a certain extent dependent on external players. All in all, this can be described as a total failure of the Kremlin's 'political-technological school'. This is now the third election overseen by Sergei Kiriyenko (deputy head of the Kremlin Administration) that has ended in a spectacular defeat – as it did in Romania and Moldovia before.”
Slovakia will not be Putin's new Trojan horse
Rzeczpospolita does not believe that Robert Fico will replace Viktor Orbán as Russia's ally:
“Putin urgently needs a new Trojan horse in the European Union, and Fico is first in line for the role, having already announced that he will veto an EU loan for Ukraine if Kyiv does not resume oil supplies via the damaged southern branch of the Druzhba pipeline. ... But it is unlikely that he will make good on his threats, for several reasons. First, Ukraine has already announced that it will carry out the repair work. ... Second, the prime minister of Slovakia, whose economy is less than half the size of Hungary’s, will not risk following in Orbán’s footsteps if it means jeopardising, among other things, the future of the many public investments that depend on EU funding.”