Israel and Lebanon: what will talks achieve?
A direct exchange between envoys of Israel and Lebanon has taken place in Washington for the first time in decades. The Israeli ambassador to the US, Yechiel Leiter, described the talks with his Lebanese counterpart, Nada Hamadeh Moawad, as very positive. They agreed that Hezbollah must relinquish its power. Commentators, however, are sceptical about the prospects of success.
Beirut has no real power
Polityka looks at the difficulties facing the government in Beirut:
“The problem is that the Lebanese government is weak and in all the years since the country gained independence after the Second World War it has never managed to gain control over the whole territory. The 'Lebanese people' is a mosaic of ethnic religious groups – the largest of which are Muslims and Christians of various confessions. They might be represented in government but they are deeply divided and in conflict with one another. During the 15-year civil war [1975 to 1990] almost 150,000 people died, and about a million – almost 20 percent of the population – emigrated. A section of the Muslim minority sympathises with Hezbollah. It is no coincidence that their leader, Kassem, has accused the government of acting without the support of the 'majority' of the population.”
Impossible demands
Even if there were a willingness to meet Israel's demands, it would not make them any easier to fulfill, the Economist writes:
“The Lebanese government and its army are too weak to disarm Hizbullah and prevent it from launching missiles and drones at Israel. ... Decommissioning Hizbullah's arsenal and forcing the group to accept the disbanding of its military wing would take years. It would require a political consensus for such a shift within Lebanon's deeply fractured society and the building-up of the capacity of the Lebanese army. Even if such a shift were possible, Mr Netanyahu is unlikely to give them the necessary time.”