A chance to end the Iran war?
Reports on the progress of the Iran war remain confusing. At the beginning of the week, the US announced an operation to reopen the blocked Strait of Hormuz through military security guarantees, however, this was suspended after just one day. US President Donald Trump explained this by saying that an agreement with Iran was now imminent. Europe's press weighs up different interests and power dynamics.
Diplomatic solution needed now
Time is running out, La Repubblica warns:
“On 14 May, US President Donald Trump will meet Chinese leader Xi Jinping – possibly from a position of weakness, with reduced US military capabilities in the Indo-Pacific, the Strait of Hormuz still closed or, in the worst case, a new military escalation in the Gulf, and the global economy suffering from the effects of the oil crisis. Trump needs a deal. ... The Iranians have a longer time-frame, but not too long either: an estimated 30 to 45 days before Tehran runs out of storage capacity for crude oil and is forced to cut production, as the country grapples with a profound economic crisis. Time is running out for a diplomatic solution.”
Let Trump believe he has won
La Vanguardia editor-in-chief Jordi Juan sees an opportunity for peace:
“Trump has clearly done the maths and realised that, with the mid-term elections taking place in November, it would be better to give the impression that the war is over – and to convince his voters that he has triumphed once again – than to risk a ground offensive. ... All his speeches in which he swore that Iran would never possess a nuclear arsenal or that he would overthrow the Ayatollahs' regime have been abandoned. ... Now is not the time to dwell on his contradictions and unfulfilled ultimatums. We should urge him to continue seeking a deal, and even if it means we all have to congratulate him on his victory, then so be it.”
Europe's inaction is dangerous
The Süddeutsche Zeitung makes it clear that a failed US military campaign is not in Europe's interests:
“The Islamic Republic as a seemingly heroic David triumphing over Goliath (the US and a demonised Israel) – this would be a compelling narrative that could completely shake up the world order. Jubilation in the Global South, indecision and inaction in Europe, resentful resignation in an America plagued by isolationism: this sounds like a recipe for disaster. It doesn't mean Berlin should send out gunships, and Paris and London frigates. But to boast about their minesweepers, as the Germans are wont to do, and then dispatch a lone ship as an advance force? Germany could do more without becoming Trump's lackey. Europe's inaction is becoming dangerous.”
Netanyahu has a lot to lose
Večernji list takes a look at what is at stake for the Israeli prime minister here:
“Should a political agreement be reached between the US and Iran, Benjamin Netanyahu could end up as the biggest political loser. He finds himself in an increasingly difficult position as he wages a war on multiple fronts – against Iran, Lebanon and Gaza – in an attempt to consolidate his political position. According to recent polls, he could face defeat in the October elections. This would be a serious political setback for him, potentially marking the end of his career, with legal consequences that could include going to prison.”
China benefiting from energy shock
Corriere della Sera comments:
“One of Donald Trump's alleged objectives in the war against Iran was to bypass China in terms of resources. In January, following the arrest of Nicolás Maduro, the US President took control of Venezuelan oil, thereby cutting off supplies to the rival superpower. The regime change in Tehran was in theory supposed to reinforce this effect. But instead, a reversal is now emerging: the energy shock resulting from the Strait of Hormuz blockade has led to a surge in global demand for green technologies manufactured in China. ... The drive for strategic autonomy has moved to the top of the agenda, in other words, the bid to reduce dependence on imported oil and gas.”