Saxony-Anhalt: how will the vote affect Europe?
The eastern German state of Saxony-Anhalt will elect a new state parliament on Sunday. Polls show that the the nationalist-populist Alternative for Germany (AfD) could secure an absolute majority. Among other things the party is promising a tougher stance on migration, a U-turn in energy policy and a patriotic cultural policy. Commentators ask what an AfD government would mean for Europe.
Political order losing common basis
The strength of the AfD in Germany has repercussions for Europe as a whole, Helsingin Sanomat stresses:
“The election in Saxony-Anhalt will represent a historic turning point in contemporary Europe, should a party classified as far-right come to power. ... The rise of the AfD has already prompted other parties to change course. Germany's old political order was based not only on the stability of the parties, but also on a shared understanding of what constitutes acceptable politics. This common understanding is now crumbling at a time when Europe is being called upon to take greater responsibility for its own defence, to support Ukraine and to contain Russia. Hence the AfD's strengthened position is not just a problem for Germany.”
Brace for an unpredictable Germany?
With elections coming up in three federal states, political analyst Miguel Baumgartner looks ahead in Expresso to what would happen if the whole of Germany were governed by the AfD:
“Germany is Europe's largest economy, the continent's industrial heartland and the country without which hardly any major European engagement is possible. A structural shift in German politics would transform European politics. Ukraine, Russia, immigration, climate, defence, relations with Washington, European integration. ... Europe was built on many treaties, but also on an unwritten premise: regardless of who governs in Berlin, Germany remains predictable. It is precisely this premise that will be put to the test from September onwards.”
Nato reaction could be delayed
Klaus Bachmann, a German political scientist based in Warsaw, examines the implications for the military sector in Gazeta Wyborcza:
“The German ministries, the Bundeswehr and the Federal Police are preparing to bypass these states [which could be governed by the AfD] in their plans for the transit of troops and equipment to the Baltic states or to Poland in the event of a crisis. ... Polish nationalists, right-wing conservatives and populists may continue to warn of impending German aggression and of German military transport vehicles on Polish roads, but their supporters should not be taken in: what poses a threat to Poland is not German aggression but the paralysis of the German state in the event of Russian aggression.”
The swelling tide of populism
Corriere della Sera fears a knock-on effect in other European countries:
“If, on Sunday, 'Germany's most dangerous man' (as Der Spiegel described Ulrich Siegmund, leader of the AfD in Saxony-Anhalt) secures more than 40 percent of the vote and takes control of a German state government for the first time; if, next spring, Marine Le Pen secures victory in France's presidential elections – a victory that first her father and then she herself have been pursuing for 52 years; if Nigel Farage's xenophobic political force sweeps aside Europe's oldest two-party system in the UK – then the phenomenon known as 'populism' will be in charge of Europe's three major countries, having already conquered the White House.”
Universities under pressure
An election victory for the AfD could also have a negative impact on universities, The Economist explains:
“The AfD detests Germany's universities in their current form. Mr Tillschneider [deputy leader of the AfD in Saxony-Anhalt] has called academic humanities the 'legitimising whores' of social change. The party wants to restructure university governance, to withdraw from European standards for granting degrees and to establish a chair of demographic studies and an institute for 'critical Islamic studies'. It will struggle to achieve much of this: academic freedom is constitutionally protected. But since universities are largely funded by the states, an aggressive government could apply financial thumbscrews.”