Brazil: lurch to the right with Bolsonaro?
In the presidential elections in Brazil, the incumbent Lula da Silva and Flávio Bolsonaro, the eldest son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, are set to face one another in a run-off. The far-right Bolsonaro won the first round with 47 percent of the vote against Lula's 45 percent. The run-off will take place on 25 October. For commentators, the significance of this election extends far beyond Brazil's borders.
Trumpists advancing across the globe
De Standaard sees Bolsonaro's success as a warning of how hard right-wing populism is to beat:
“South America's largest country is now falling into Trump's sphere of influence. That has major consequences. First off, it's a major blow to the fight against global warning. ... In France and Germany, populists are hammering on the gates of power. In the US, the Democrats are racking their brains about how to position themselves to win over voters. And a clear message is emerging from Brazil: if you want to beat populism, elderly figures with a long track record in the political establishment are not the best weapon.”
Dark years looming
The taz is deeply concerned:
“A Bolsonaro Junior regime could bring fundamental changes. Following a series of scandals, the Supreme Court is no longer in a position to perform the same regulatory role. Parliament veered sharply to the right on Sunday. And in Donald Trump the Bolsonaros have a grande amigo in power in the US. Apropos Trump: the Brazilian right could learn a few things from him about how to force through a second term. Now is not the time to panic, however – especially not before the run-off vote. The left has three weeks to ward off catastrophe. If they fail, Brazil could face some very dark years politically.”
Clinging to power at any price
In an angry piece in Público, Brazilian author and filmmaker Jorge Oliveira writes:
“Lula's pathological clinging to power could lead to a serious collapse of Brazil's democratic institutions. It puts the country in very real danger of having as its president an inexperienced politician with a questionable past who has already stated his willingness to work under the leadership of US President Donald Trump. By refusing to hand over power to other leaders and insisting on standing for election, Lula will hand Brazil over to the far right if Flávio is elected.”
Failure to take voters' concerns seriously
The Financial Times explains why the Bolsonaros are likely to be back in power again any moment:
“The answer lies less in the achievements of Flávio Bolsonaro, who has been a mediocre candidate, and more in the failure of Lula. A late recovery by Lula cannot be ruled out, especially if new corruption allegations emerge against his opponent, but his weaknesses as a candidate have been exposed in this campaign. ... Brazilians have consistently listed organised crime as a top concern. Over many years at the forefront of Brazilian politics, Lula has struggled to convince voters he has an effective answer to the rise of drug gangs; many on the left have given the impression that they do not see it as a priority.”
Leaving Brics would not cause big waves
Radio Kommersant FM examines what a Bolsonaro victory would mean for Russia:
“Bolsonaro is a right-wing politician and a supporter of Donald Trump. Under his leadership, Brazil will inevitably turn towards the US, with all the consequences that entails. It is even possible that Brazil would withdraw from Brics, given that the 47th President of the US is famously no fan of the organisation. Nevertheless, one can assume that economic relations with Russia would not suffer unduly, mainly because the right wing advocates pragmatism and has no intention of accepting losses for ideological reasons.”