Will the ceasefire between Iran and Israel hold?
A fragile ceasefire between Israel and Iran has been in place since 24 June. There are contradictory statements about the damage to Iranian nuclear facilities and the whereabouts of the enriched uranium. Tehran has temporarily suspended its cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). Europe's press analyses the situation.
Still a long way from stability
Peace in the Middle East is contingent on a number of unfulfilled conditions, Sabah comments:
“Preliminary data indicates that Iran's nuclear capacity has been severely reduced, but that it retains the ability to enrich uranium. ... Clearly there can be no talk of a lasting atmosphere of trust in the Middle East as long as 1. Israel's expansionist ambitions are not halted, 2. there is no relative peace between Israel and Iran, 3. the state of Palestine is not recognised, 4. Israel and Saudi Arabia don't restore minimum diplomatic relations, and 5. relations between Turkey and Israel are not normalised.”
Politically profitable uncertainty
We are unlikely to learn about the true extent of the damage to the nuclear facilities anytime soon, the Tages-Anzeiger suspects:
“While Khamenei played down the destruction, Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi spoke of 'serious damage'. In any case, the regime would prefer the world to be left guessing as to the status of its nuclear programme: have the attacks set it back by years? Or just months? Khamenei and Trump have similar interests when it comes to how successful the US airstrikes were: if it remains unclear, Trump can enjoy being hailed as a warlord. And the Tehran leadership can return to where it feels most comfortable: the realm of threats, assertions and secret agreements.”