US-China: will Xi and Trump reach an agreement?
In the tariff dispute between the US and China both sides now say they are close to reaching a deal. Presidents Trump and Xi are scheduled to meet in South Korea on 30 October. On Monday, however, Trump concluded an agreement on rare earths with Japan, which in view of China's recent export restrictions can be seen as a pact against Beijing.
Tensions set to persist
The Irish Times describes a fragile situation:
“Beijing has sent a message to the US, which has long restricted the export to China of technology including high-end semiconductors, that two can now play at that game. A lot is at stake and tensions are set to persist. An escalation of the trade war could see the US block the export of more technology to China or deploy its control of the dollar to cripple parts of the Chinese banking system. Beijing could retaliate by cutting off the supply of rare earths the US defence and automobile industries need to keep going. Neither side can afford such an escalation.”
Europe can benefit but it needs to be quick
Die Presse sees an opportunity for the EU:
“The more the US drives partners away with tariff barriers and the more China shows its true, autocratic face, the more attractive Europe can appear. More and more countries around the world are looking for partners. However, the 'Old Continent' will only seem credible if Brussels continues to work through its specifications. The EU needs to open up new markets, for example with streamlined free trade deals. ... This is hard work: it can only be done without pointing fingers and with concessions. There must be more focus on Africa, Central Asia and the Arab region. At the same time, research and development in Europe must be advanced at full speed, also by attracting scientists who are leaving the US.”
Ukraine in exchange for Taiwan?
The US sanctions against Russian oil companies give Xi Jinping another means of exerting pressure, writes Corriere della Sera:
“By complying with the bans on Russian crude oil, he can force Vladimir Putin to stop the aggression for lack of money. But will he do this? In the case of Iran, which has been subject to the current oil sanctions since 2012, China has already shown that it is prepared to ignore Western restrictions: it buys at least 90 percent of Iran's extensive oil exports. ... But with regard to Ukraine, too, Xi can name his price for complying with the US bans: he wants the US to declare its formal 'rejection' of Taiwan's independence.”