Will Xi and Trump reach an agreement?
In the tariff dispute between the US and China both sides are now saying they are close to reaching a deal, and Presidents Trump and Xi are scheduled to meet in South Korea on 30 October. On Monday, however, Trump concluded rare earths deal with Japan which in view of China's recent export restrictions can be seen as a pact against Beijing.
The swing strategy is not working
The summit will not mark a turning point, Ukrainian diplomat Serhiy Korsunskyi predicts in Dzerkalo Tyshnya:
“There is currently no talk of a renewal of the global security or trade architecture, not even on a theoretical level. The 'Trump swing', which is becoming the hallmark of his second term in office, allows for no clarity regarding the finer points of his plan: first 100 percent tariffs are announced and the purpose of a meeting is questioned, then the Chinese head of state is described as a strong leader with whom it is essential to negotiate. On the Chinese side, things are much more transparent: the Middle Kingdom will benefit from any scenario in which the US withdraws from the world.”
China's regime is getting stronger
Things are getting tight for the US, writes Lea Sahay, Beijing correspondent for the Süddeutsche Zeitung:
“Xi Jinping is following his mantra: weakness and concessions ultimately lead to insecurity. ... The feeling of being humiliated and belittled by foreign powers once again as a result of Trump's erratic policies, as China has experienced in the past, strengthens the people's loyalty to the government. ... Beijing is using this sense of being unfairly treated to rally the support of the population for the difficult years that lie ahead. The transformation into a tech superpower also has top priority in the upcoming five-year plan. ... It's questionable whether the United States, caught up as it is in its culture wars, will be able to match this resolve.”
Mutual concessions needed
For Naftemporiki, the two major powers have no choice but to come to an understanding:
“The Chinese also want an agreement to be reached in Ukraine because they've invested in the New Silk Road and don't want to see Europe in ruins. Beijing is acting realistically and commercially, knowing that peace is far more beneficial to a country's prosperity than war. ... The two largest economies have every interest in maintaining realistic relations with each other in order to strengthen their interests. The US and China believe that a complete separation is impossible and will therefore be compelled to find a way to avoid this by making mutual concessions.”
EU lacks a strategy in the trade war
The EU cannot afford to take sides and seems to be just muddling through without a proper plan, writes Expressen:
“To keep Trump happy, Ursula von der Leyen fiercely attacked China in several speeches in the spring and summer, slapped tariffs on Chinese electric cars and steel, imposed sanctions on banks, rejected Chinese investments and so on. ... This was not based on a coordinated EU strategy. The EU never developed a strategy. Instead, EU leaders did a bit of thinking before each new situation - and then decided it was best to keep Donald Trump happy. ... Perhaps EU leaders realise that this plan has flaws. EU leaders have been travelling to Beijing all autumn to maintain their national business interests with China.”
Tensions set to persist
The Irish Times describes a fragile situation:
“Beijing has sent a message to the US, which has long restricted the export to China of technology including high-end semiconductors, that two can now play at that game. A lot is at stake and tensions are set to persist. An escalation of the trade war could see the US block the export of more technology to China or deploy its control of the dollar to cripple parts of the Chinese banking system. Beijing could retaliate by cutting off the supply of rare earths the US defence and automobile industries need to keep going. Neither side can afford such an escalation.”
Europe can benefit but it needs to be quick
Die Presse sees an opportunity for the EU:
“The more the US drives partners away with tariff barriers and the more China shows its true, autocratic face, the more attractive Europe can appear. More and more countries around the world are looking for partners. However, the 'Old Continent' will only seem credible if Brussels continues to work through its specifications. The EU needs to open up new markets, for example with streamlined free trade deals. ... This is hard work: it can only be done without pointing fingers and with concessions. There must be more focus on Africa, Central Asia and the Arab region. At the same time, research and development in Europe must be advanced at full speed, also by attracting scientists who are leaving the US.”
Ukraine in exchange for Taiwan?
The US sanctions against Russian oil companies give Xi Jinping another means of exerting pressure, writes Corriere della Sera:
“By complying with the bans on Russian crude oil, he can force Vladimir Putin to stop the aggression for lack of money. But will he do this? In the case of Iran, which has been subject to the current oil sanctions since 2012, China has already shown that it is prepared to ignore Western restrictions: it buys at least 90 percent of Iran's extensive oil exports. ... But with regard to Ukraine, too, Xi can name his price for complying with the US bans: he wants the US to declare its formal 'rejection' of Taiwan's independence.”