COP30: can the green transition still succeed?
Climate protection targets will be under negotiation at the COP30 World Climate Conference, which begins today in Belém, Brazil. UN Secretary-General António Guterres has called for stronger measures against climate change, stressing that the world had failed to meet its goal of keeping global warming below 1.5 degrees C and that every tenth of a degree increase means more hunger, displacement and financial losses. Commentators wonder what to expect.
A long-term process
This COP won't solve the climate crisis overnight either, warns La Tribune:
“The disappointment it causes each year is just as exaggerated as the hopes it raises. No one believes that the annual UN General Assembly in New York can resolve all the world's conflicts. But with the COP, many dream of a single major summit at which the entire planet turns its back on fossil fuels. ... That is an illusion. ... There will never be a major climate revolution such as idealists dream of. ... Fortunately, however, this COP is not our last chance to save the climate. It is a process that is destined never to be completed - and that will outlive all the climate sceptics of our time.”
Cause for celebration
Politiken sees the EU's agreement on climate targets shortly before COP30 as a hopeful sign:
“Yes, there is still a long way to go until 2040, but once the EU countries have committed themselves a lot of money and private investment will flow into projects designed to steer the bloc in this direction in the near future. This will make it more difficult to roll back climate measures, even if the shift to the right continues and a less green Commission comes to power in Brussels in four years' time. The fight against climate change is a marathon, not a sprint, so the EU's commitment to its long-term goals is cause for celebration. We should be doing much more, but as sad and inadequate as it is, it's hard to imagine anyone other than the EU leading the global climate battle.”
Outcome uncertain
Exactly what will come out of COP30 is difficult to predict, Trouw writes:
“What will not help is the rise of chauvinism that we see in the policies of US President Trump, which positively drip with selfishness. Although he himself will not be present in Belém, his fondness of oil, gas and coal, which he is helping to revive, will only reinforce the attitudes of other countries with major fossil fuel interests. On the other hand, Trump could also trigger a green counter-movement. The outcome of the two-week COP30 in Brazil is uncertain. ... In reality, as experience teaches us every year, the UN climate conferences have their own agenda and diplomatic dynamics.”
Past inaction necessitates drastic measures
Five young scientists call on Spain to push for an end to the fossil fuel era in El País:
“In Spain, public debate has focused heavily on adaptation [to changing climate conditions]. ... But you can't heal a wound without stopping the bleeding: adaptation is pointless unless we abandon fossil fuels. ... At the upcoming COP30, Spain should sign the Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty and join the leading climate protection countries. ... The inaction of recent decades forces us to take drastic measures. The alternative is a dystopia that exacerbates the climate apartheid: a few benefit while the global majority suffer in climate hell.”
A cocktail of crises and conflicts
Le Quotidien warns of the devastating consequences of not meeting the climate protection targets:
“For now, we hardly feel any difference in our lives. However, climate change will certainly affect our temperate regions in a few decades. It's hard to imagine that the many people on the other side of the world will remain in regions where droughts, food shortages and floods have made it impossible to live. Humanitarian and migration crises will continue to define this century. This cocktail could also trigger conflicts over access to resources. We will be in the front row.”
High time to phase out fossil fuels
We must not give up hope, urges Avvenire:
“The proliferation of wars, massive investment in weapons and steadily rising energy demand have pushed environmental changes down the list of priorities for many countries - regardless of the rhetoric. Not only in Washington, which wants to withdraw from the Paris Agreement at Donald Trump's behest, and is conspicuous by its absence in Belém. ... It is therefore not surprising that UN Secretary-General António Guterres opened the COP by stating that the Paris Agreement's main goal of keeping global temperatures below 1.5 degrees had 'failed globally'. ... But all is not lost: the world can still minimise the damage by taking accelerated action, starting with a gradual phase-out of fossil fuels.”
Much has been achieved in the last decade
Kauppalehti hopes for complementary successes:
“The 1.5-degree target of the Paris Agreement is still a long way off, but a lot has happened in ten years. A major transformation is already underway in the energy sector, and companies in Finland have also invested money in reducing their emissions because they see this as the smartest move for their own business. In the climate negotiations over the coming weeks, further pieces of this puzzle must find their place.”
Focus on progress
We shouldn't concentrate too much attention on the final statement of the COP, writes François Gemenne of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in Les Echos:
“If, on the other hand, we stopped hoping for a decisive change of direction from every COP and focused instead on the things that happen beyond the main negotiations, which are so often decried as just a big show, we might find more cause for hope. The coalitions and partnerships that are forged and the projects that are funded are more tangible results than the final statement, and outline the contours of the future economy.”