Iran war: what comes next?
The Israeli and US airstrikes against Iran have gone on for almost a week now. Tehran has responded with strikes against Israel and neighbouring Gulf states. The US Senate and House of Representatives have endorsed US President Trump's actions. Meanwhile, oil prices have risen significantly, causing turbulence across the global economy. Commentators in Europe try to predict what course the war will take.
Unpredictable outcome
No one knows where this war will lead, La Stampa observes:
“There are those who predict that the regime, exhausted by the relentless bombing, will eventually give in to negotiations and finally renounce all nuclear ambitions and regional claims. ... Others are waiting with almost messianic conviction for the great Iranian popular uprising that will finally overthrow the regime after decades of oppression. Still others are banking on a long war of attrition that will break even the most iron will. And then there is the scenario that the whole world is worried about: an uncontrolled escalation in which a missile flying just a few kilometres further than expected is enough to draw new armies into the fight and turn a regional conflict into something far bigger.”
A dangerous military adventure
Things are not going as planned for Israel and the US, Mladina observes:
“The military objective is to destroy Iran's strategic weapons, while the political objective is to overthrow the current government. The idea was that external military intervention would facilitate an internal political uprising. This grotesque simplicity was initially thwarted by Iran's response, which led to the fighting rapidly spreading to the Gulf states and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Within a very short time, a chaotic regional theatre of war has emerged, with global political and economic consequences. ... This time the American-Israeli military adventure is more dangerous than it was thought.”
Tehran will hunker down
Iran is hoping that its opponents will be put off by the cost of waging war, historian Mădălin Hodor writes on republica.ro:
“Former US Secretary of State Kissinger once said about the Vietnam War that the Vietnamese didn't need a military victory, all they had to do was resist. I believe the same applies in the case of Iran. ... It's enough for the regime in Tehran to resist while at the same time making the cost of waging war increasingly hard for the world to accept. The only thing that could end the war quickly is an internal popular uprising. That is something Tehran fears more than American air strikes.”
Trump needs a ground offensive
All is not yet lost for Iran, Karar believes:
“Everyone knows that the US army cannot achieve any real success in Iran unless it launches a ground offensive. At the same time, however, it cannot expect the American public to approve of a land war. Above all, supporters of Trump's Maga ideology don't want the US to interfere in matters outside the continent under any circumstances. ... Of course, the situation of Iran, which is under massive attack, is no better than Trump's. It too needs a way out in order to assert itself. But at the moment it's Iran's turn to make a move. If it plays its cards wisely, it can find a way out.”
Mullah regime bringing about its own demise
The odds are stacked against Tehran, geographer Pierre Firode explains in The Conversation France:
“Decapitated, illegitimate and isolated, the Iranian regime can only hope for a political erosion of American support for the war. To achieve this, the Revolutionary Guards will undoubtedly use all the asymmetric means at their disposal: prolonged drone attacks on US bases in the Gulf, the dispersal of their forces to dodge enemy firepower and a media offensive aimed at terrorising Arab neighbours and the Western public. This strategy remains a double-edged sword for the regime, as it could convince both the Gulf monarchies and US politicians that it is vital to put an end to the regime once and for all.”
Danger of bloody suppression
Polityka focuses on the fate of the Iranian people:
“In the worst-case scenario, the Iranians will listen to Trump and rise up against the dictatorship, but if so their rebellion will be brutally crushed. This is what happened to the Iraqis who heeded the calls of George Bush senior in 1991. Even if the Iranian army is crushed, the ayatollahs still have hundreds of thousands of Basij, revolutionary volunteers who have suppressed all unrest on Iran's streets so far using clubs and guns. They are not as easily targeted with bombs as radar installations, rocket launchers or military bases.”