Coup rumours: Putin under pressure from all sides?
In the run-up to the scaled-down military parade in Moscow, the situation appears to be deteriorating for President Vladimir Putin. According to intelligence reports, he is said to be spending most of his time in bunkers for fear of assassination or coup attempts. And even pro-Kremlin pollsters are reporting a decline in support. Commentators point to mounting pressure and speculate on where this might lead.
Nightmare scenario
Der Standard sees the Kremlin leader in an extreme situation:
“Vladimir Putin is unlikely to be sleeping well at the moment. On Monday, a Ukrainian drone exploded in the middle of the night only seven kilometres from the Kremlin. Russia's troops are treading water, aside from committing the odd war crime here and there. The air defences are increasingly overwhelmed. And on top of that, Donald Trump is proving too erratic to be of any real help to Putin in Ukraine. That's enough to give anyone nightmares. Especially when it's just a few days before the world's most famous military parade takes place. A Ukrainian drone crashing into Putin's Victory Day propaganda show – from the Kremlin's perspective this would be nothing short of disaster.”
Putin hunkers down
La Repubblica cites intelligence sources which claim the Kremlin boss is afraid of being the target of a coup:
“He no longer sleeps at the presidential residences in Moscow and Valdai. He spends most of his time in underground bunkers. He forbids his chefs, bodyguards and drivers to use public transport or carry mobile phones. And he is stepping up security measures. ... Vladimir Putin is afraid of being assassinated, perhaps by a Ukrainian drone. Afraid of being ousted by a coup. This is why he makes ever fewer public appearances. ... According to a US intelligence report cited by CNN, since March, the Kremlin has feared 'a plot and a coup'.”
Shoigu as putschist implausible
The Spectator is unconvinced by rumours of an attempted coup:
“Presenting Shoigu as a particular putschist is especially laughable. Fairly or not, he has faced the brunt of criticism within the military for the bungled initial invasion and subsequent failures of leadership, strategy and supply. ... Those officers with whom he was associated, including Chief of the General Staff Gerasimov, whom he appointed, have pointedly disassociated themselves from him. It is hard to impossible to imagine that he has the authority and credibility within the high command to stage a coup.”
Public discontent is growing
Polityka observes:
“Ukrainian strikes on parts of Russia's critical infrastructure are increasingly having an impact – President Volodymyr Zelensky has even stated that Russia has lost seven billion dollars worth of profits due to the destruction of refineries and pipelines. Slowly but surely, this is beginning to affect public sentiment in Russia – there is growing discontent over restrictions on internet access, intensifying repression and fear of a potential full mobilisation.”
No channels for discontent
Political scientist Sergei Medvedev explains on Facebook that protest cannot take shape within a repressive system:
“Russians are now truly becoming aware of the war for the first time – not because drones are flying overhead, refineries are burning and the number of graves in cemeteries is rising, but because their internet access has been cut off. ... However, they lack the political, social and media tools to channel this discontent into something bigger. It is precisely these tools that Putin has destroyed over the last 25 years, with the tacit consent of the population. The political space in Russia has been scorched and purged, the mechanisms of repression are well-oiled, and the protest movement has no points of convergence.”
Is Putin prodding Zelensky to attack?
In a Telegram post picked up by Echo, political scientist Vladimir Pastukhov voices deep concern:
“My gut feeling is that Putin is trying to provoke Zelensky into attacking Red Square during the parade. ... Moscow needs such an attack to justify some utterly outrageous act. ... Because the war has genuinely reached an impasse, dark clouds are gathering over Europe and Trump's hands will no doubt soon be tied: in the autumn [midterms], he could become a lame duck. There are ever fewer options for delaying the decision: either the war must become a total war or it must end. I cannot say that I feel at ease with the situation.”