Iran war: will it escalate?
With the two-month negotiation period between Iran and the US now over, escalation of the conflict seems imminent. Donald Trump has threatened Tehran with a "crushing economic operation", stressing that the US would also punish any countries that help Iran. He directed particularly harsh words at Oman, saying the US would "bomb the shit out of them" if they get in its way. Meanwhile, Tehran has threatened to launch attacks on US allies.
Trump barking because he can't bite
The Süddeutsche Zeitung explains the motives behind the threats against Oman:
“Trump wants to give his voters in the US the impression that the US military that ran aground in the Strait of Hormuz can still do as it pleases. But it can't. Behind the threats vis-à-vis Oman lies a bitter realisation. Tehran has the upper hand when it comes to the Strait of Hormuz. To secure control over this waterway, which is so vital to the world's energy supply, Iran must quickly bring its Arab neighbours on board – the Saudis, Iraqis, Kuwaitis and Emiratis. And above all Oman, the country on the western shores of the strait. At the end of this war Tehran hopes that a collective security system will emerge in the Gulf. The US would then be out of the picture as a protector of the Arabs. ... Iran would be the dominant power in the Gulf. That is why Trump is barking so loudly.”
Kicking up a big fuss
The Tages-Anzeiger sees the threats as an act of desperation:
“Donald Trump is a bad loser. The rulers in Tehran realised this early on – and over six months of war they have skilfully outmanoeuvred the US President each step of the way, both militarily and politically. Now Trump is having to reassess the few cards he still has in his hand. Will he find another ace or joker? The overwhelming victory from the air has failed to materialise. The political deal on reopening the Strait of Hormuz is turning out to be a non-starter. Strangling the Islamic Republic economically will take time and success is by no means guaranteed. So what can he do? For a start, kick up a big fuss.”
Europe could end up in the line of fire
Večernji list is concerned:
“In the event of a new US escalation, Iran could extend the conflict far beyond the Middle East and even threaten Europe. ... Tehran is considering attacking US military targets in south-eastern Europe. ... Rather than just responding to US strikes in the Middle East, Tehran would show Washington that allies and military capabilities thousands of kilometres from Iran will suffer the consequences of escalation. ... Europe could go from being a bystander to a new front line.”