All eyes on Saxony-Anhalt state election
A new parliament will be elected in the eastern German state of Saxony-Anhalt on 6 September. The AfD has been polling at over 40 percent for months there, with forecasts predicting considerable losses for the CDU. Commentators discuss the implications for Saxony-Anhalt, the federal government and Europe.
A threat to Europe
A victory in Saxony-Anhalt would destabilise Germany and Europe, warns La Stampa:
“More than just Germany is at stake here. Germany's strength is a necessary prerequisite for Europe's stability. If Berlin loses its industry, security and democratic cohesion, Europe will lose its economic clout and strategic autonomy. A strong Europe needs a strong Germany. While Germany lacks France's military and nuclear power and Poland's strategic position, it possesses the industrial and financial strength needed to translate these into European political capacity for action.”
Traditional parties have lost eastern Germany
Pavel Polák, a former correspondent in Germany, analyses the situation in Český rozhlas:
“The AfD's success in the east stems among other things from the fact that this party has tapped into the frustration that has built up over the years – resulting in particular from the feeling of being overlooked and patronised by the West, the poor economic situation and the failure to manage migration. The AfD has tapped into the ever-growing sense that everything is, quite literally, going down the drain, and that the parties which have been in power continuously have done absolutely nothing to stop this. ... It remains an indisputable fact, however, that after more than three decades in power, the traditional democratic parties have effectively lost eastern Germany.”
The economy would suffer even more
Today's economic situation is actually a clear argument against voting for the AfD, the Süddeutsche Zeitung explains:
“Because also when it comes to prosperity and jobs, the AfD would only make everything much worse. ... 'More nationalism' is the exact opposite of what the export-oriented Federal Republic needs. Germany should seek to secure as many new trading partners as possible, given that its relations with the US and China have become more strained. 'Back to the combustion engine' would be the death knell for the German car industry, which has slipped into crisis precisely because it failed to keep pace with the shift to electric cars. ... We need a far broader debate on just how much worse off Germans would be if the right-wing populists came to power.”
AfD victory would be dangerous for Merz
If the AfD wins the shock would be felt more in Berlin than in Saxony Anhalt, says The Spectator:
“If he wins, [AfD lead candidate Ulrich] Siegmund will be mugged by two brutal realities. First, there's no money to do what the AfD has pledged, and second, German state premiers have limited powers. ... Import cheap Russian gas and restore the Nord Stream pipeline? Sorry, that's decided in Berlin or the EU. Kick out migrants? Nope. This is the remit of Berlin or Brussels, although the AfD can make life for migrants in Saxony-Anhalt miserable. ... If the AfD wins, the impact in Berlin may be greater than in Saxony-Anhalt. ... This will raise the threat of palace revolts.”
Germany faces pivotal decision
Trud predicts that Germany will shift either to the right or the left:
“The CDU faces a huge problem because its options for Saxony-Anhalt are to either let the AfD form a government or enter a coalition with the radical left and thus reduce itself to absurdity. At the federal level, the situation looks more or less the same. Just as the CDU is currently cosying up to the Social Democrats in order to remain in government, if it wants to stay in power it will either have to work with the radical left or decide to end Merkel's policy of acting as a 'firewall' against the far right.”