After Nawrocki's win: where is Poland headed?
Following Karol Nawrocki's victory in Poland's presidential runoff, Prime Minister Donald Tusk has announced a confidence vote for 11 June. Nawrocki, who was backed by the right-wing conservative PiS party, only narrowly defeated Rafał Trzaskowski, the candidate of the liberal-conservative government camp, securing 50.9 percent against Trzaskowski's 49.1 percent. Commentators stress the European dimension of the result.
Foreign policy through the prism of domestic interests
TVNet speculates on how Poland's foreign policy could change:
“The future president criticises the concentration of power in Brussels, rejects European climate policy and wants Poland to position itself more decisively against Germany's dominant role in the EU. ... Overall, Nawrocki's public stance on international issues has been more orientated towards the interests of his electorate than long-term security strategies. While Duda was a relatively internationally active ally, the next president is initially positioning himself as a 'guardian of domestic policy' - as someone who assesses foreign policy through the prism of Polish national interests and not through the collective ability of the alliance to act.”
New challenges for Kyiv
European Pravda fears a change of course in Poland's Ukraine policy:
“Among the commitments Nawrocki has signed [to secure Slawomir Mentzen's support] is a pledge not to send Polish troops to Ukraine and to block Ukraine's accession to Nato. We can only hope that Nawrocki's victory won't create any problems regarding military support for Ukraine. At least the election winner has so far avoided statements about ending military aid for Kyiv. ... However, growing demands for Kyiv to 'repay its debt' for the aid it has received - from concessions in its remembrance policy to advantages for Polish businesses on the Ukrainian market - are to be expected.”
Will EU funds be blocked again?
Jutarnji list worries that Poland could fall out with the EU again:
“Poland's major political, social and cultural divides, which have existed since the middle of the last decade, will not diminish. The consequences will certainly be 'tough cohabitation', which will jeopardise a number of the government's plans, such as the reform of the judiciary, whose independence was destroyed during the PiS's eight years in power. Poland was criticised by the EU over these policies and lost access to EU funds, which changed after Tusk took office. If Nawrocki rejects the government's legislative proposals, it cannot be ruled out that discussions in Brussels about cutting off access to EU funds will resume.”
A bitter blow for progressives
Left-wing Krytyka Polityczna sees little hope of Poland becoming more liberal Poland in the foreseeable future:
“For progressive voters, Nawrocki's victory means applying the alt-right brake - not to say the reactionary one. There is no hope of civil partnerships for gay couples, legal abortion or legislative changes leading to a secular state for the next five years.”
Not a pro-Trump victory
Attributing Karol Nawrocki's victory to his being 'pro-Trump' misses the point, says the Irish Examiner:
“Rather it was the former's boxer and revisionist historian's position on issues such as abortion, the restoration of the independence of the Polish judiciary, migration, climate issues, and Ukraine's accession to the EU that saw him home. ...With the ultimate aim of undermining Tusk and his colleagues before the next general election in 2027, Nawrocki will also seek to complicate the EU's united pro-Ukraine stance and his country's relationship with fellow Nato members. ... His was not a 'pro-Trump' victory, but it is nevertheless one which will impact greatly on Warsaw and across the wider expanses of Europe and further afield.”
Looming instability in Warsaw
This outcome could lead to a snap election, explains Laurynas Vaičiūnas, director of the Jan Nowak-Jeziorański College of Eastern Europe in Wroclaw, in a radio interview with LRT:
“The ruling coalition is crumbling. ... If Nawrocki sends signals to the government - which he is likely to do - the smaller parties in the government could be tempted to initiate talks with the PiS or other opposition parties. There is a risk that early elections will be held in Poland, even though they're not due for another two and a half years. On the other hand, the current ruling parties could close ranks on the understanding that early elections would hardly work in their favour. ... So we have two and a half very difficult years ahead of us.”
Front against Russia weakened
This is not a good result for Europe or Estonia, Eesti Päevaleht concludes:
“Alongside Estonia, Poland is at the forefront when it comes to taking the threat from Russia seriously and building up proper defence capabilities. This will not change even after the presidential election. Nevertheless, there is cause to be concerned about Poland. Donald Tusk, who is respected and listened to in Europe, has managed to put Poland on a par or even ahead of the UK, France and Germany within a short time, taking our interests and our message with him. ... All this now means a weaker and more passive Poland at a time when the countries bordering Russia should be maintaining as strong a united front as possible.”
Setback for the European project
Le Soir sees the Berlin-Paris-Warsaw triangle under threat:
“The joint statements by the German, French and Polish leaders of recent weeks have rekindled our faith in the European project and its ability to develop an autonomous force capable of withstanding external attacks. But today this trio is no longer looking so strong: Macron is controversial and being challenged by the far right, the German chancellor was elected by a very narrow margin and the Polish prime minister is facing an uncertain future. With Nawrocki in Poland, Orbán in Hungary, Fico in Slovakia, Meloni in Italy and a possible comeback by Babiš in the Czech Republic, the camp of nationalists, right-wing extremists and populists has the wind in its sails, fuelled by Trump and his Maga armada.”
Both camps must seek compromise
Deník doesn't see the election results as a disaster:
“The worst outcome would be if Jarosław Kaczyński and his PiS party took their success in the presidential election as a carte blanche for a return to power, a rapid dissolution of the government and early elections. Because that would mean that Sunday night's election, which rightly divided power in a divided Poland, would lose all meaning. ... Poland needs exactly the opposite: the greatest possible consensus and cooperation between all democratic and pro-Western forces. The PiS and 'its' president Karol Nawrocki now have the chance to show that they are capable of this. As does the Tusk government.”
Government has disappointed voters
Rzeczpospolita sees this as a warning for Prime Minister Tusk's coalition:
“After just 18 months in power the governing coalition is almost as 'worn out' as the PiS after eight years. ... This close election result is also proof that Donald Tusk and his camp won't be able to hold on to power simply by using fear [of a PiS re-election] and settling scores [with PiS policies]. The Poles are clearly disappointed because they can't see in which direction the current government is heading. ... If it doesn't do its homework, it will lose the 2027 parliamentary elections with a bang.”
Rural areas were decisive
The candidate from the liberal camp, Warsaw Mayor Rafał Trzaskowski, came across as too much of an urbanite for rural voters, journalist Leszek Jażdżewski writes in Interia:
“Rafał Trzaskowski was not credible in his bid to win votes in rural Poland. ... I can't say how much of this is down to personality traits and how much is simply because people beyond the urban middle class can't really identify with someone like him. This election was won in rural areas and lost in the big cities.”
Blockade policy to be expected
The results are bad news for the Polish government, hvg analyses:
“Nawrocki has openly declared that he wants to be a counterweight to the government. ... And relations between the government and Nawrocki are also very bad. The government portrayed the new president as a criminal during the election campaign. ... It's more than questionable how the relationship between Nawrocki and the government will develop after all this, and it can't even be ruled out that Donald Tusk's government will collapse before the end of its term. ... After all, the head of state can veto all laws passed by the government majority.”
On a collision course with Brussels
Tusk's pro-European course is now in jeopardy, De Standaard fears:
“Poland is facing a far-reaching political deadlock that could last until the next parliamentary elections at the end of 2027. ... This will put Prime Minister Tusk's strong pro-European stance under pressure. Ever since he took office at the end of 2023, Tusk has sought closer ties with France, Germany and the United Kingdom. ... The probability is high that with Nawrocki at the helm, confrontations with Europe will only become more frequent in the coming years.”
Proponent of a strong, sovereign country
At least there is no danger of a rapprochement with Moscow under the future president, Aktuality.sk concludes:
“The national-conservative has the backing of Kaczyński's PiS party and opposes EU integration, but he's not about to sell his country to Russia. Even with him at the helm, the Poles are better off than they would be with [Slovakian Prime Minister] Robert Fico. Nawrocki advocates a strong, sovereign Poland that doesn't take advantage of the boons of European integration. ... It won't be pleasant under Nawrocki, but it's not a tragedy. Poles are innately wary of Russia. They will never allow their country to fall under the rule of a mass murderer in the Kremlin.”