Israel-Iran conflict: global implications?
Israel and Iran continue to carry out missile strikes against each other, and US President Donald Trump has called on Tehran's residents to evacuate the city. In the meantime, French President Emmanuel Macron has announced that a proposal for a ceasefire is on the table. European commentators assess the consequences of the conflict for the region and beyond.
Fuel supplies could be blocked
Iran still has an important ace up its sleeve, writes Webcafé:
“The regime could embark on a radical path and block the Strait of Hormuz, through which around a third of the global oil trade and a fifth of the liquefied natural gas trade flows. The Strait of Hormuz is one of the key locations in the world for maritime traffic and trade. ... For Iraq, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates it is the only point of access to the world's oceans. Iran now has the opportunity to block it and thus disrupt global business. It's unclear to what extent such a move is actually being considered in Tehran, but the mere threat of the strait being blocked could affect global fuel prices.”
The end of an era could be nigh
Nothing less than the 1968 Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty is at stake here, La Stampa stresses:
“If Iran were to withdraw from the treaty as it has threatened to do, this would not be an isolated breach. It would be the breaking point of an entire system, and mark the transition from a non-proliferation regime to a world in which nuclear weapons are used as security guarantees. The danger lies not only in Iran becoming a nuclear power. It lies in the fact that other countries will follow the same logic, and proliferation will become the new geopolitical norm. And that would mark the end of an era. ... One in which deterrence is normalised, diplomacy is marginalised and proliferation is rationalised.”
Russia's partnership only exists on paper
Writing in Kommersant, political scientist Andrey Kortunov sees Moscow as one of the losers in this conflict:
“Russia was unable to prevent Israel's massive strike against a state with which it signed a comprehensive strategic partnership agreement five months ago. Moscow is clearly not prepared to go beyond condemning Israel's actions and provide Iran with military assistance. ... The risks for Moscow can only increase in the long term if we bear in mind that Israel's main goal is not to suspend Iran's nuclear programme or even to change Iran's behaviour in the region, but to bring about a regime change in the country.”
An opportunity for Turkey
A shift in the Middle East could work in Turkey's favour, writes analyst Ahmet Kasım Han in Yetkin Report:
“Türkiye is walking a tightrope in an increasingly destabilised region. ... If Türkiye plays its cards right, this chaos could still be its pivot point. Fix the structural issues - even modestly - and Türkiye could be poised to benefit from the post-crisis reordering. Think supply chains, energy corridors, new trade alliances, commercial and foreign investment opportunities.”
A vegetarian in a world of predators
Analyst Sandis Šrāders warns in Delfi:
“The diversion of US resources to the Middle East could weaken security in other regions. China could seize the opportunity to take control of Taiwan if the US's attention and resources are focused on the Middle East. ... The Nato allies in Europe must now act more decisively and faster - the new Russian military bases on the Finnish border are not a friendly gesture but rather a sign that Moscow wants to restore its influence in the territories of the former Soviet Union. Europe has ignored the changed security situation in the world for too long, and must finally wake up. ... It's like a vegetarian in a world ruled by predators.”
Power balance needed
The situation is unlikely to escalate, Naftemporiki feels sure:
“The war that has broken out between the strongest powers in the region is painful for both sides, but it doesn't seem likely to spread, because everyone realises that an escalation of the conflict is in no one's interest. They also recognise what would be at stake in a catastrophic war, namely nothing less than economic ruin. Even those forces seeking to reshuffle the cards in the region recognise the need for a certain balance, despite the battle cries calling for the enemy's destruction.”