Israel-Iran conflict: how to prevent escalation?
Israel has expanded the military operation it began against Iran on Friday and attacked nuclear and military facilities, as well as oil and gas fields. Tehran responded with repeated drone and missile attacks on Israeli cities including Haifa, Tel Aviv and Jerusalem. There have been numerous casualties on both sides. The European press voices concern.
Political strategy lacking
Netanyahu's strategy could fail, writes Die Presse:
“Israel risks overreaching itself with this multi-front war. It has already failed to translate the military successes of recent months into lasting political and diplomatic advantages. Netanyahu's foolhardy tactic bears clear traits of hubris. Israel won't be able to reshape the Middle East by military means alone. This would require a political strategy too. But there is no sign of that right now, either in Gaza or in the war against Iran. In the medium term, the attack on Iran's nuclear facilities may bring Israel more security. But in the long term, the Iranians will be all the more determined to secure a nuclear bomb in order to protect themselves from future attacks.”
Go back to the negotiating table
Both countries must sit down and negotiate as quickly as possible, NRC urges:
“It is in everyone's interest that the war does not escalate further. Iran must find its way back to the negotiating table. The regime in Tehran must realise that it is now much weaker than it was a few years ago and that it has overplayed its hand with its nuclear threats. The damage Israel has inflicted on Iran's nuclear facilities should also compel it to show restraint. It is the task of the leaders of the Gulf states to convince Iran of this. In the meantime, it is the task of the West to persuade Trump to rein in Netanyahu.”
Many benefit from Israel's military strikes
Basically nobody wants Iran to become a nuclear state, says Reflex:
“Weakening Iran's nuclear programme is good for both America and Europe. After all, Tehran is fond of threatening the entire West. This also plays into the hands of Muslim countries that criticise Israel's attacks (their public opinion allows them no other stance) but are rubbing their hands in glee behind the scenes. Nobody wants the monstrous Iranian regime to own nuclear weapons. ... So in reality all this is advantageous for most of the world. But it is in such a powerful anti-Israel bubble that it doesn't want to admit it.”
Activate all diplomatic instruments
Escalation of this conflict must be prevented, El País insists:
“The potential for an escalation is enormous. The consequences would be devastating. First of all because of the impact of violence on the civilian population, the first victims of the war, and potential terrorist attacks. But also because of the consequences for the global economy: the price of oil skyrocketed yesterday as the European stock markets collapsed. The entire power of containment lies with the US - which guarantees Israel's superiority - and with Russia and China - Iran's allies. Unfortunately, Europe has proven incapable of formulating a common position on Netanyahu. However although its influence is limited and the situation doesn't inspire optimism, we cannot give in to resignation: the EU must activate all its diplomatic instruments.”
Battle over energy is crucial
La Repubblica sees trade and economic policy risks:
“The battle over energy is one of the decisive chapters in Israel's war against Iran: a vital blow to the pillar of the Islamic Republic's economy, razing refineries and oil depots to the ground. ... Tehran is also trying to respond on the same front, so far with a handful of missiles against the petrochemical plant in Haifa, but at any moment it could block the Strait of Hormuz, paralysing international trade in crude oil and liquefied gas. ... This is the only instrument Tehran has to put pressure on the White House and try to secure better terms for saving the regime in last-minute negotiations.”
Trump's foreign policy debacles
The US is hardly taken seriously on the international stage anymore, political scientist Serhiy Taran writes in a Facebook post republished by Telegraf:
“The war between Israel and Iran is a glaring example of the incompetence of Trump's foreign policy, where arrogant confidence in his own talent for striking a deal with anyone has led to a situation where no one wants serious talks with the US leader. That is, talks are still taking place, but everyone is doing their own thing. Iran is enriching uranium, Israel is shelling Tehran and refusing to withdraw from the Gaza Strip, Russia is planning a continuation of the war, China is completely ignoring Trump's threats, and Ukraine is being forced to accept restrictions on US aid.”