Drones over Poland : how should Nato react?

Onet sees the US president under pressure to act:

“The Russian drone attack is unprecedented, and requires an equally unprecedented response from Nato. ... Russia's attack was not just a test of Poland's defence capabilities and Western unity, but above all a test for Donald Trump. Vladimir Putin's red-carpet treatment in Alaska has been followed by an escalation in the attacks on Ukraine and provocations on Nato's eastern flank. If there is no adequate response from the US president, this will be an unambiguous and irrevocable humiliation for Trump and the US.”

Russia's attack is also an attempt to shake Europe's solidarity with Ukraine, writes Dzerkalo Tyzhnia:

“By attacking other European states, Moscow wants to demonstrate their vulnerability and helplessness. It also wants to create a basis for them to stop their deliveries of air defence systems to Kyiv, and is trying to influence public opinion in European countries to achieve this. If people there perceive a real threat from Russian drones, they will demand that their governments put the protection of their own airspace first. And they will be sceptical about the idea of supplying Ukraine with more Patriot systems or other anti-aircraft weapons.”

Neatkarīgā comments:

“Many people, especially here in Latvia, are calling for more decisive action, arguing that Putin only understands force. ... These demands are easy to understand. Those who bear no responsibility can blithely call for the Kremlin to be bombed or for all ties with Russia to be severed. ... But it's much more difficult to come up with an adequate response when you're responsible for the lives of millions of people. It's not as if those in charge in Berlin, Warsaw, Paris and London don't understand the situation. They all know perfectly well what kind of person Putin is. The question is how to deal with him? Unfortunately, there's no easy answer. Especially when the final say on Europe's defence lies with US President Donald Trump.”

The Russian drone attack exposes the weaknesses in Nato's defence capabilities, European Pravda comments:

“The results of this defensive action - in which a Dutch air force group also took part - are truly unacceptable. Naturally this can be explained on the one hand by the fact that the drones were not aimed at strategic targets where protection is likely to be higher, and also the fact that the Polish army has no combat experience, whereas the Russians have been able to gain such experience in the war against Ukraine. But these are 'excuses' rather than real explanations, and do not invalidate the criticism of Nato's inadequate defence. Indeed, they may even reinforce it.”

For the Süddeutsche Zeitung, it is now crystal clear that Nato is not prepared for this type of warfare:

“With enormous technical effort it can fend off a few drones, almost literally shooting at sparrows with cannons. But can it also fend off not just 19 but 190 drones on a single day? Or 1900 in a week? This is the situation Ukraine finds itself in, which, however, is defending itself far more effectively against Russian airstrikes. In Brussels, the rather ironic suggestion has been circulating that, as far as drone defence is concerned, Nato should join Ukraine rather than the other way round. Wednesday night showed that this might not be such a bad idea.”

Hungary must show solidarity with Poland, Népszava demands:

“'This is not our war,' Hungarian Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó retorted at the end of August after Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha said that Hungary was on the wrong side of history. But the serious drone attack on Poland has completely refuted Szijjártó's claim. Not only because Polish and therefore Nato territory was attacked, but also because of the long-standing Polish-Hungarian friendship. We cannot stand idly by and watch as the aggressor threatens a country that is inextricably linked to our own.”

Russia is testing how far it can go, Krytyka Polityczna warns:

“Even if one were to (naively) assume that the individual violations of Polish airspace are not deliberate provocations but chance occurrences, unplanned deviations or technical malfunctions, Russia will still see them as a test of our readiness to react. If there is no reaction the Kremlin will keep testing the limits even more vigorously, sowing informational chaos in the process.”

Fear is a poor counsellor in this situation, writes Newsweek Polska:

“Nato's Achilles heel is not the Suwalki Gap [a narrow corridor between Belarus and the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad, running along the border between Lithuania and Poland], but its fear of provoking Russia. Western politicians repeat like a mantra that Putin only understands the language of force, but they are afraid to use it. ... Since the annexation of Crimea it has been clear that sooner or later Russia would decide to test how much Nato's mutual security guarantees are really worth. The night-time drone action is a prelude to such a test.”

Poland's reaction is appropriate, says republica.ro:

“What Russia is trying to demonstrate is that Article 5 doesn't work in practice. ... It wants to show the whole world that it can attack a Nato state and nothing will happen because of the fear that the conflict will escalate and engulf the whole of Europe. The Russian logic would have worked in a country like Romania, which prefers to turn a blind eye to one or two drones out of fear. ... And that's exactly what you can't say about Poland, which has already started to take measures and is preparing for a potential conflict with Russia.”

In a Telegram post republished by Echo, political scientist Abbas Gallyamov focuses on where the drones were launched from:

“It is of fundamental importance whether the drones took off from Russian territory or flew in from Belarus, where the Russian army is currently preparing for joint manoeuvres with the Belarusian armed forces. If there was any purpose in what happened for Putin, it was to force Poland to strike back at Belarusian territory, thereby drawing it into the conflict.”

News.bg explains just what Russia is testing here:

“The Russians are not interested in whether the Polish air defence system and air force are functioning. No, the real test is taking place right now, as the Russian intelligence services monitor social networks to gauge the public's reaction. The statements of European leaders and defence ministers are also being evaluated, as well as how Trump and the US react. Europe is ill-prepared. Such provocations will become increasingly frequent in the coming years.”

The West's hesitant stance was a mistake which will cost it dearly, writes Novinky.cz:

“A no-fly zone should have been imposed over all Ukraine, or at least on its western side, a long time ago, and secured by the alliance's armed forces. Not just to make things easier for Ukraine, but also to protect the airspace of their own countries and prevent a further large wave of refugees from Ukraine. ... Another long overdue step was the lifting of restrictions on the use of the delivered weapons and what targets they can hit on Russian territory. It turns out that Russia does not see such measures as warnings aimed at preventing an escalation of the conflict but as our weakness, which allows an escalation of the conflict.”

Any rash reactions must be avoided at all cost, columnist Bart Eeckhout warns in De Morgen:

“Of course there will be critics who find the reactions too weak. I believe they are mistaken. The idea that European partners should actively defend Ukrainian airspace has been circulating for some time. But is now the right time to take this step? One can toss the question back and forth, but the fact remains that this would represent a major step towards full European involvement in the war and direct confrontation with Russia. There is the assumption that Putin would shy away from such an ultimate confrontation. That may be true. But it's a huge gamble.”

The Kremlin leader's star is rising, Corriere della Sera notes:

“Putin feels strong and is raising the stakes, threatening the European Union with the aim of piling on the pressure, gauging its willingness to react and mobilising the friendly forces he has on the Old Continent in his favour. ... Negotiations with Donald Trump on peace in Ukraine have come to nothing, and Putin feels encouraged by the indecision of the White House. ... What's more, the Chinese celebrations at Xi Jinping's court have boosted his confidence, as if he had been given a green light to force the situation.”