Can the Gaza ceasefire last?
Israel and Hamas are accusing each other of violating the ceasefire which began on October 10. Both sides have reported attacks and deaths. The Israeli military announced on Sunday evening that it would cease its strikes but warned that there would be a vigorous response to further violations. While some commentators are pessimistic, others see a silver lining to the weekend's fighting.
No sign of peace
Libération sees the conflict flaring up again:
“In Israel, now that the euphoria over the release of the living hostages has subsided, politics has regained the upper hand. ... Netanyahu is more determined than ever to cling to power won't hesitate to use the reports of former Hamas captives to support his own victory narrative. ... In this war of narratives, war of images, war of ceasefire violations, it is becoming increasingly difficult to find space for the word 'peace'.”
Israel's deterrence strategy
The Spectator compares the situation with Israel's actions against Hezbollah in Lebanon:
“What unfolded in Gaza this morning bears a structural resemblance to events on the northern front nearly a year ago. In the days following the November 2024 ceasefire with Hezbollah, the Lebanese militia launched two mortars at Mount Dov. Israel responded by launching a wave of strikes across Lebanon. Since then, not a single rocket has been fired by Hezbollah into Israeli territory. The lesson was clear: the ceasefire marked not the end of Israel's military readiness, but the beginning of a new strategic equation.”
There is still hope
Kurier is optimistic:
“There is still a good chance that a solution will be found. The willingness of Arab states to provide troops and establish a new administration in the Gaza Strip is in itself a breakthrough that seemed unthinkable not so long ago. However, it is also clear that there is a multitude of players who want to sabotage this solution. First and foremost, Hamas itself. It was only to be expected that the terrorist organisation could not be relied on. ... But failing to seize this opportunity for peace would lead inevitably to the next disaster.”
The result of a fractured Hamas
In a Facebook post, political scientist Abbas Gallyamov sees the reason for the flare-up of fighting in an internal split within Hamas:
“I would venture to say that what has happened is the result of the weakening of the Hamas leadership and the splitting up of the group into individual brigades, each of which is now acting in accordance with how it imagines the bright future. Hamas has split into moderates and radicals. The former have returned the hostages to Israel, the latter are now firing in all directions without thinking of the consequences or realising what they are doing. They feel that the ground is slipping from under their feet – and they have learnt nothing else apart from shooting.”