Cuba's existential crisis: will Trump have his way?
Cuba faces a "humanitarian catastrophe", its Minister of Foreign Affairs Bruno Rodríguez Parrilla told the UN Security Council on Tuesday. The Communist Caribbean state has been struggling under a US oil blockade for months. President Trump has threatened to "take" Cuba and charges have also been brought in the US against the 94-year-old former president, Raúl Castro. The media discuss how this crisis could unfold.
Talks could be most attractive option
El Mundo sees a willingness to compromise among the key players in this crisis:
“Cuba's future clearly lies in the hands of three actors who are more interested in tough negotiations than in uncontrolled escalation: Gaesa, a business conglomerate controlled by the military elite, the armed forces, and the Trump administration. … The country's economic collapse poses a threat to Gaesa's interests, which is why the conglomerate is seeking a new political balance that will ensure its survival. The military has no incentive to put up extreme resistance. … And Trump also appears to have no interest in a political vacuum that could generate another chaotic migration crisis. … He is therefore seeking partners for dialogue within the Cuban establishment.”
Huge headache potential
Trump's Cuba plans could backfire, warns Le Monde:
“A violent toppling of the Cuban regime would force Washington to get involved in the long term. ... Opening Cuba could precipitate a wave of migration towards the US, which would contradict the highly restrictive policy that has been so brutally enforced by the administration. ... Trump must also take other factors into consideration, such as the Helms-Burton Act, which makes lifting US sanctions strictly contingent on a democratic transition or a democratically elected government in Havana. ... The 'honor' of taking Cuba that Trump dreams of having could cause him some terrible headaches.”
Risky endeavour
Toppling the Cuban regime would be very beneficial for Trump in the run-up to the midterm elections, comments La Tribune de Genève:
“After boosting his ego by arresting Nicolás Maduro, the US president is fantasising about ousting Raúl Castro, the regime's most prominent figure. ... But Castroism is far stronger than Maduro's Chavism. And the regime that has remained in power for decades despite sanctions has shown remarkable resilience. ... To help the people who have survived thanks to the dollars of the Cuban diaspora in Florida, which dreams of the end of the Communist regime in Havanna, would be ray of sunshine in the grey skies of the November midterms. Another failure, however, would spell electoral disaster. ”
Next stop Greenland?
After Venezuela and Iran, Europe cannot stand back while Trump intervenes in Cuba, Trouw warns:
“The US has no right to invade another country on the basis of flimsy justifications, however reprehensible its regime may be. ... The trail of chaos that Trump has left across the world in a matter of months, and that shows no sign of abating, should have provoked far greater consternation and unease, and reaped much harsher condemnation. That Europe has remained dead silent in view of the threats and measures against Cuba is appalling. And also stupid. If we stay silent on Cuba, we cannot suddenly get up in arms when America comes for Greenland – this time for real.”