Le Pen eyes presidency despite conviction
An appeal court has upheld the conviction of French far-right leader Marine Le Pen for embezzlement of EU funds. However, the ban on holding public office has been reduced, which allows her to run for president in the 2027 election. Two years of her three-year prison sentence have been suspended. For the remaining year, she will be required to wear an electronic ankle tag. Le Pen plans to appeal the decision and has said she will run for president "without a tag".
Europe must brace itself
For the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, France's finances are in a bad enough state already:
“And the likelihood of Le Pen initiating major structural reforms, reuniting the French and restoring the country's shattered public finances is seen as very low. On the contrary, populist promises such as setting the retirement age at 62 are cause for serious concern. This would have far-reaching consequences, and not only for France. Le Pen may strike a chord with her radical demands on issues such as immigration and Brussels bureaucracy, but otherwise conflicts loom across Europe as far as the eye can see. Could Berlin and Paris still work together on security and defence issues in a spirit of trust? Will Le Pen set her sights on the EU electricity market and ECB independence? Europe must brace itself for all kinds of stress tests.”
Don't leave it to the courts to fight the far right
Political scientist Alina Mungiu-Pippidi stresses on Hotnews:
“If the fight against corruption has become the weapon of choice against the far right, we should be aware of two things. First: if we only use the fight against corruption against the leading figures of the far right, we would be better off forgetting it altogether. Ideally, it should apply for everyone, visibly and consistently. … Secondly: it's risky to overestimate the role of the courts. If the far right is better at winning votes than the political centre, it will win anyway. And we should not undermine our democracies by trying to prevent this. We would do better to work hard and defeat them by winning over voters.”
Risks for Kyiv
A victory for Le Pen in France's presidential elections would be bad news for Ukraine, warns European Pravda:
“Although since 2022 – in reaction to the start of Russia's full-scale invasion – the French far-right has no longer dared to publicly support Russian dictator Vladimir Putin, an election victory for the leader of the Rassemblement National would not only lead to a reduction of military aid to Kyiv but most likely also to a blockade of European financial aid. This would of course be accompanied by rhetoric about the need to end the war through diplomatic means. Not to mention the fact that under a far-right government France would oppose Ukraine's EU membership.”
Ankle tag: kudos for campaign?
The conviction will be more of a help than a hindrance in the election campaign, believes Leo Klimm, Der Spiegel's Paris correspondent:
“Le Pen can blithely brush aside the Paris court of appeal's ruling because she knows that many of her supporters don't care about the verdict, no matter how clear the evidence of fraud may be. Rassemblement National (RN) voters like her precisely because she plays by her own rules. Because she promises to bring down 'the system'. ... The tag on her ankle could become Le Pen's most valuable campaign asset. The popular frontrunner who is being kept from power at all costs by a politicised judiciary – what could better fit the far-wing populist narrative.”
Victim narrative won't win votes
The Irish Times doubts that playing the victim is a strategy that will win Le Pen more votes:
“Le Pen evidently calculates that a narrative of persecution will energise her supporters. She may be proved correct. But opinion polls suggest most French voters regard her prosecution as justified, and the moderate conservatives she needs in order to prevail in a second round are precisely those most likely to be repelled by an anti-judicial crusade in the Trumpian style. ... Some polling indicates her younger colleague would have been the more formidable nominee.”
Election victory would weaken France and Europe
El Periódico de Catalunya warns:
“The problem for France is that a victory for Marine Le Pen would further divide a country that seems to be in decline already. Her 'French-first' policy and the deportation of immigrants would be a step into the void, and her unpredictable economic policy – which supports many social demands (such as retirement at 62) but also business leaders' interests – could mean that France, whose risk premium is even higher than that of Greece, becomes dependent on help from the IMF. … And Europe? Marine – and Meloni – may no longer wish to leave the Eurozone, but their nationalism means 'more Europe' is out of the question for them. And without this 'more', the EU will become increasingly irrelevant in a world dominated by America and China.”
Not comparable with Meloni
Le Point doubts very much that Le Pen would follow a similar path to that of the Italian Prime Minister:
“There are those who believe it might be possible to steer the RN towards a form of pragmatism similar to Giorgia Meloni's. … It's just that this comparison makes no sense. Moreover, the Italian prime minister doesn't want anything to do with Marine Le Pen … She has listened carefully to the advice of Mario Draghi, whose views are light years away from those of the RN, and has supported Kyiv unwaveringly since the start of the war, whereas Marine Le Pen’s party – which, despite a shift in rhetoric, remains utterly accommodating of Vladimir Putin's regime – has not voted in favour of any of the aid packages for Ukrainian democracy.”
Voters to decide on rule of law
With her announcement in the TV interview yesterday evening, Le Pen made clear that she will be putting the rule of law to the test, Libération observes:
“Of course the problem is not that the former RN leader wants to bring the case before the court of cassation – it is her right to do so. The problem lies in the way Le Pen justified her decision to stand as a candidate, with remarks that seemed to cast doubt on the rule of law, from which she had benefited only hours before. Ultimately this day, between 2 pm in Paris's Palais de Justice and 8 pm on TV, was the perfect metaphor for the choice that voters will be presented with in spring 2027: for or against the rule of law.”
Convicted presidents the new normal?
El País sees parallels with US President Donald Trump:
“The verdict leaves no doubt as to her guilt. … At the same time, however, the sentence is lenient enough to allow her to stand for election. ... This has deprived her of one of her favourite arguments, namely that the French judiciary is interfering in the democratic process and that there is a conspiracy against her bid for the Élysée Palace. The message is clear: judges rule on the legality of actions, but in the end it is the public who decides who will govern. … In the US, we are now used to having a convicted president. In the French Republic and in Europe, this should never become the norm.”
A risky move
Salzburger Nachrichten points out that running for election while grappling with legal proceedings will not be without risks for Le Pen:
“On the one hand, not all potential voters are likely to take kindly to the fact that Rassemblement National's lead candidate is a convicted criminal. On the other hand, the public prosecutor's office could still lodge an appeal, leading to further legal proceedings that could end in a long-term ban from standing for election after all. Such a ban would then be final – and would force RN to switch candidates in the middle of the election campaign.”
RN more electable than ever
The Neue Zürcher Zeitung comments:
“The legal disputes have undoubtedly strengthened the Rassemblement National. ... Bardella made shrewd use of his time as the replacement candidate, targeting new voter demographics. Now he is actually topping Le Pen in the polls. She will be hoping that this surge in popularity will also work in her favour. ... The RN is also profiting from a development that is outside its control, namely that new, much more radical parties are forming on the periphery of the political landscape. ... Suddenly RN, and especially the Bardella wing, look like a moderate alternative.”
Acid test for the party
The verdict will show just how far social acceptance of the RN has progressed, observes La Libre Belgique:
“For 15 years, Le Pen has been trying to transform an extremist party into a political formation that is deemed capable of governing the country. ... She has established the RN in the provinces and made it socially acceptable to a section of the population. Despite all the scandals, contradictions, inconsistencies in policy, legal baggage and now a serious conviction, the RN continues to grow. ... By clinging to her candidacy at all costs, Marine Le Pen is banking on the fact that the RN's normalisation and popularity have now advanced so far that her electorate will forgive her for misappropriating public funds – nothing less.”