Trump, Xi, Putin: a new three-way summit?
A meeting between Donald Trump, Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping could take place in China on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in November. The plan has stoked fear in Europe that these major powers will conduct negotiations without consulting Ukraine and its allies. Commentators discuss the dangers of a redrawing of spheres of influence and the consequences for European security.
Major powers meet at Europe's expense
Such a summit would be disastrous from a European perspective, Handelsblatt shudders:
“Even the US president's announcement that he intends to negotiate nuclear disarmament cannot disguise the fact that, just as in the darkest of times, the major powers would be carving out their spheres of influence over the heads of those directly concerned. What's more: under Trump's presidency the leading Western power has not only clearly aligned itself with Russia in its war in Ukraine, but the self-proclaimed 'leader of the free world' is also behaving in an increasingly autocratic manner and actively seeking closer ties with like-minded leaders in Beijing and Moscow. In other words: at such a summit of the major powers, three autocrats would be deciding the fate of a democratic Europe.”
Putin wants a new Yalta
Putin will have got what he wants if the summit takes place, Ukrainian political scientist Ihor Petrenko writes on liga.net:
“Three chairs at one table – that is the image the Kremlin has been striving for since 2022: Russia as one of three global centres of power determining Europe's fate. ... A source in the Wall Street Journal openly describes this ambition as a second Yalta, a new divvying up of spheres of influence. This is unrealistic, but telling. Putin is not coming to negotiate on Ukraine but on his place in the world, and Ukraine is merely a bargaining chip in this process. ... The outcome of Shenzhen would not be an agreement but a 'framework': general principles which they will then try to present to Kyiv as 'already agreed'. This is precisely what we must start working to prevent right now.”
A step too far even for the US president
Lidové noviny comments:
“There can be no doubts about what Putin's vision is. It encompasses not only Ukraine but all the territories of the Soviet empire prior to 1989 – Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Poland, the Czech Republic, Slovakia and Romania. When we say 'about us without us', we're not far off the mark. Originally, Ukraine was the focus, but the Czech Republic could also be indirectly mentioned at the conference. ... The more grandiose Putin's vision is, the slimmer its chances of success. It's one thing for Trump to 'sell out' Ukraine, a country in which his voters have little interest (some even openly hate it). But it's quite another to 'sell out' the whole of Central and Eastern Europe, for which Washington assumed a certain responsibility when these countries joined Nato.”
Conflict between Zelensky and Trump inevitable
Zelensky and Trump have different negotiating objectives, writes Rzeczpospolita:
“The Ukrainian president is quite rightly concerned that Trump is not so much seeking to negotiate a fair and favourable peace for Ukraine as to end the conflict as quickly as possible because it is preventing him from striking deals with Russia and China. That's why he wants to hold the best possible cards in his hand ahead of the upcoming peace talks. Hence the attempts at a counteroffensive on the front line before winter sets in, and hence the relentless attacks on more targets in Russia. In this sense, Zelensky and Trump are doomed to clash.”