The economy in 2019: is pessimism justified?
Everywhere in Europe the number of citizens who believe that 2019 will be worse than 2018 from an economic point of view is growing. The trade dispute between the US and China, the Brexit and the European elections are causing uncertainty and damping optimism. But commentators also see some hopeful signs for the coming year.
Doomsayers are wrong
The fears about a new global financial crisis are exaggerated, 24 Chasa writes:
“The way economic cycles work is that as soon as the repercussions of the last crisis have been overcome, the next one is already on the way. That means that in theory a crisis is already imminent. There are even economists who specialise in warning of local, regional and global economic crises. They've made doomsaying their stock in trade. The fact is, however, that independent analysts and banks are not expecting a financial crisis in 2019. On the contrary, they even expect the economy of the EU, and particularly the Eurozone, to grow in 2019 and 2020 - albeit somewhat more slowly than before.”
Worst is yet to come for Turkey
Columnist Murat Muratoğlu warns in Sözcü against putting too much faith in a revival of the Turkish economy:
“I tell you, don't be fooled by each piece of good news and don't get euphoric. The first three months of the year are all about the [local] election campaign. Price increases will be withdrawn, decrees will be issued and agreements will be made. ... All steps aimed at appeasing the population. ... Until the end of the elections nothing will be done that could revive the country's economy. Foreign exchange and interest rates are deliberately being kept low through the monetary policy. The existing consumption structure is not being touched. This state of affairs will aggravate the problems. With the transition to the presidential system, we have entered a crisis that we will overcome for years. After the local elections, we will see this much more clearly.”