Poland: how should the West react to Russian drones?
At least 19 Russian drones entered Polish airspace on Tuesday night. The Polish air force shot down several of them with support from Dutch and Italian Nato aircraft. Warsaw has requested an emergency meeting under Article 4 of the Nato treaty - a step taken by member states when they perceive an external threat. Europe's press sees the need for action.
Whether unintentional or deliberate doesn't matter
Russia is testing how far it can go, Krytyka Polityczna warns:
“Even if one were to (naively) assume that the individual violations of Polish airspace are not deliberate provocations but chance occurrences, unplanned deviations or technical malfunctions, Russia will still see them as a test of our readiness to react. If there is no reaction the Kremlin will keep testing the limits even more vigorously, sowing informational chaos in the process.”
Nato must not shy away from force
Fear is a poor counsellor in this situation, writes Newsweek Polska:
“Nato's Achilles heel is not the Suwalki Gap [a narrow corridor between Belarus and the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad, running along the border between Lithuania and Poland], but its fear of provoking Russia. Western politicians repeat like a mantra that Putin only understands the language of force, but they are afraid to use it. ... Since the annexation of Crimea it has been clear that sooner or later Russia would decide to test how much Nato's mutual security guarantees are really worth. The night-time drone action is a prelude to such a test.”
Poland won't put up with this
Poland's reaction is appropriate, says republica.ro:
“What Russia is trying to demonstrate is that Article 5 doesn't work in practice. ... It wants to show the whole world that it can attack a Nato state and nothing will happen because of the fear that the conflict will escalate and engulf the whole of Europe. The Russian logic would have worked in a country like Romania, which prefers to turn a blind eye to one or two drones out of fear. ... And that's exactly what you can't say about Poland, which has already started to take measures and is preparing for a potential conflict with Russia.”
Seeking to draw Belarus into the conflict
In a Telegram post republished by Echo, political scientist Abbas Gallyamov focuses on where the drones were launched from:
“It is of fundamental importance whether the drones took off from Russian territory or flew in from Belarus, where the Russian army is currently preparing for joint manoeuvres with the Belarusian armed forces. If there was any purpose in what happened for Putin, it was to force Poland to strike back at Belarusian territory, thereby drawing it into the conflict.”
Testing reactions on social media
News.bg explains just what Russia is testing here:
“The Russians are not interested in whether the Polish air defence system and air force are functioning. No, the real test is taking place right now, as the Russian intelligence services monitor social networks to gauge the public's reaction. The statements of European leaders and defence ministers are also being evaluated, as well as how Trump and the US react. Europe is ill-prepared. Such provocations will become increasingly frequent in the coming years.”
Too passive for too long
The West's hesitant stance was a mistake which will cost it dearly, writes Novinky.cz:
“A no-fly zone should have been imposed over all Ukraine, or at least on its western side, a long time ago, and secured by the alliance's armed forces. Not just to make things easier for Ukraine, but also to protect the airspace of their own countries and prevent a further large wave of refugees from Ukraine. ... Another long overdue step was the lifting of restrictions on the use of the delivered weapons and what targets they can hit on Russian territory. It turns out that Russia does not see such measures as warnings aimed at preventing an escalation of the conflict but as our weakness, which allows an escalation of the conflict.”
Objective risk analysis needed
Any rash reactions must be avoided at all cost, columnist Bart Eeckhout warns in De Morgen:
“Of course there will be critics who find the reactions too weak. I believe they are mistaken. The idea that European partners should actively defend Ukrainian airspace has been circulating for some time. But is now the right time to take this step? One can toss the question back and forth, but the fact remains that this would represent a major step towards full European involvement in the war and direct confrontation with Russia. There is the assumption that Putin would shy away from such an ultimate confrontation. That may be true. But it's a huge gamble.”
Putin seizing the moment
The Kremlin leader's star is rising, Corriere della Sera notes:
“Putin feels strong and is raising the stakes, threatening the European Union with the aim of piling on the pressure, gauging its willingness to react and mobilising the friendly forces he has on the Old Continent in his favour. ... Negotiations with Donald Trump on peace in Ukraine have come to nothing, and Putin feels encouraged by the indecision of the White House. ... What's more, the Chinese celebrations at Xi Jinping's court have boosted his confidence, as if he had been given a green light to force the situation.”