After Larijani's death: is the regime faltering?
In Iran, the influential secretary of the Supreme National Security Council Ali Larijani has been killed in an airstrike. The fate of the supreme leader also remains unclear: Mojtaba Khamenei has not been seen since the death of his father, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. The media ask whether the Iranian regime can survive if its leadership continues to be eliminated by Israeli and US attacks.
One of the last possible negotiating partners
Larijani was a central figure in the regime but was at least open to diplomacy, the Tages-Anzeiger notes:
“He's said to have been responsible for the brutal crackdown of the protests in January. Even before Khamenei's death, Larijani was regarded as the de facto ruler of the country. Just days before the attacks by the US and Israel he flew to Oman for last minute talks. His death will weaken the regime. But whether it will cause it to change course is another question altogether. ... True, at the end of the day Larijani was no longer a pragmatist. But he may have been one of the last men in power with whom any form of negotiation about what an end to this war might look like was possible.”
Theocrats could make a comeback
Iran's power base could well survive a war of attrition, El País admits:
“The theocrats have been preparing for this moment for decades. They've amassed huge quantities of drones and other weapons, giving them a long-term advantage. While US military capabilities are more advanced, they are slower and more expensive to produce. ... The US and Israel are in a race against time to destroy Iran's missile launch systems and drone factories before the stockpile of Patriot missiles is depleted. ... Should the theocratic regime survive - which seems likely after these first two weeks of war - Trump will not have reshaped the Middle East, but will have strengthened one of its most dangerous players.”
A mole in Tehran would turn the tide
In a Telegram post republished by Echo, political scientist Vladimir Pastukhov speculates about the possibility of a betrayal from within the highest echelons:
“The goal of the Iranian leadership is to maintain power and keep the situation under control so as to secure their own lives and wealth. ... But let's suppose that someone in the Iranian leadership loses their nerve and decides to strike a deal with Trump. ... The only way for the Gulf War to end in a manner acceptable to Trump could be the betrayal of a single individual in Tehran. To be honest, from this point on I'm more interested in what the CIA is doing in this war than in the Pentagon itself.”
What remains is the desperation of the doomed
Political scientist Kirill Rogov writes in Facebook:
“The regime leaders cannot hide from Israeli rockets, even if they know that their lives are in danger. All they can do is repeat to themselves the mantra that the regime is based on institutions and not on personalities. But let's be quite honest, the regime's leaders are its most important institutions. And against the background of its decline, the belligerent determination of the Revolutionary Guards now reads less as a sign of strength and more like the desperation of the doomed. And that is hardly a quality to inspire the masses - or mid-level commanders.”
Power core must be eroded
Political scientist Vassiliki Georgiadou draws lessons from the Arab Spring in To Vima:
“The experience of 2011 also showed that mass social mobilisation can act as a crisis accelerator, yet the ultimate outcome depends on whether the military and enforcement mechanisms remain cohesive. Where such mechanisms were fragmented or neutralised, the transitional process became possible; where they remained intact, repression prevailed or a form of authoritarian reorganisation and reproduction of the pre-existing system occurred in a new guise. For cases like Iran, this experience suggests that the scale of demonstrations is a necessary but not sufficient condition, while the decisive factor for the fall of an authoritarian regime is the erosion of the theocratic and military core of power.”