War in Iran: a ceasefire in the offing?
According to several sources, the US and Iran have agreed on a framework deal to end the war. The announcement was first made by Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, whose country is mediating in the conflict. The official signing ceremony is due to take place on Friday. The details of the agreement remain unclear, as does the question of whether renewed Israeli attacks in Lebanon will jeopardise the deal.
Too soon to celebrate
Dagens Nyheter sees little substance:
“Before the world starts rejoicing that a devastating war has come to an end, we should take a close look at exactly what kind of agreement is actually on the table. It is not a peace treaty. It is an extension of a ceasefire that neither the US, nor Iran, nor Israel has honoured. ... It is a memorandum of understanding, a declaration of intent that has not yet been signed. According to Trump, what may now happen is that the Strait of Hormuz will be reopened. It was open before 28 February, when the US and Israel started the war.”
Tough to implement
Naftemporiki also remains sceptical:
“A ceasefire that brings lasting security to the Gulf would be the ideal scenario for the future; but believing it will happen requires a great deal of optimism. The 60-day negotiation period allocated to implementing the agreement is too short for the technical measures reportedly planned regarding Iran's highly enriched uranium. Although Iran has lost regional power due to military losses and the weakening of its allies, it has gained strategic power through its control of the Strait of Hormuz – a result of this war.”
This is not what victory looks like
Jutarnji list sees this as a clear defeat for the US:
“As Donald Trump announces yet another 'great deal' with Iran which he is trying to cast as a US victory, we have to seriously start asking whether the 80-year-old US president is a pathological liar or simply crazy. ... Thousands of people have lost their lives, mainly in Iran and Lebanon, while global energy prices have soared. The result: the military-theocratic regime in Tehran has further consolidated its power, Iran is blackmailing the surrounding Arab countries and much of the rest of the world, and no one is talking about the country's democratisation anymore. ... If this is supposed to be a victory as the US President says, what would a defeat look like?”
Tehran will cast this as a big win
The Iranian regime is emerging from the conflict in a stronger position, Correio da Manhã notes:
“The agreement will focus on 14 points aimed at ending the conflict, with the main emphasis on opening the Strait of Hormuz, releasing Iran's frozen financial assets and easing the sanctions imposed on Tehran. If this agenda is followed, it clearly shows that the situation is far more advantageous for Iran than for Trump. Aware of this advantageous position, Tehran has announced the funeral of former Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. ... This funeral will certainly be used to proclaim the regime's victory.”
Israel won't be forced into a deal
La Stampa fears Israel will try to prevent a ceasefire:
“For Israel, this agreement was already a disappointment: it neither guarantees the destruction of Iran's nuclear and missile programmes, nor does it neutralise Hezbollah, nor does it dismantle Tehran's regional axis. It puts the war on hold without granting Netanyahu the strategic victory he continues to claim for himself. The Israeli attack on Beirut is therefore not merely a reaction to Hezbollah. It strikes at the heart of the agreement. It tests the US's ability to rein Israel in. And it signals to Iran that while Washington may promise a ceasefire, it cannot necessarily impose it on its most important ally.”