Iran war: escalation looming again?

Neither Iran nor the US is interested in a protracted conflict, the NRC notes, and adds:

“This would suggest that negotiations will resume after all. But there will be less trust than before. ... Both extremes of the spectrum between war and diplomacy would be difficult to manage for Trump. Consequently, relations between the US and Iran are likely to end up somewhere in the middle.”

Naftemporiki sees little leeway for Washington:

“The higher prices climb at filling stations and in supermarkets across the US, the worse the Republicans' prospects become in the mid-term elections on 3 November. Trump cannot afford another war. Tehran is well aware of the US president's vulnerability and is doing everything in its power to exploit this and blackmail him. It is not Washington that decides when something is 'over', but the mullah regime. They set the beat and Trump dances. US military superiority alone cannot break the power of the regime in Tehran. As long as Iran controls the Strait of Hormuz with just a few drones and missiles and uses them as geopolitical leverage, it is the mullah regime that will determine the scale of the conflict.”

Dagens Nyheter detects a stalemate situation:

“The regime in Tehran has realised that the cost of a war is too high for Donald Trump – and that he is not prepared for the kind of large-scale ground operations that would be required to capture the Strait of Hormuz or secure the enriched uranium. Just a few hours after announcing the end of the ceasefire, Trump also said he didn't believe a full-scale war would resume. Iran is severely weakened, both economically and militarily. But the regime still has the Strait of Hormuz – and, above all, the Iranian people – in its iron grip.”

The position of the new Iranian leaders is by no means secure, comments the Neue Zürcher Zeitung:

“At present, the regime in Tehran feels victorious because it has survived the war against the American superpower. With the funeral of the revolutionary leader Ali Khamenei, which was attended by huge crowds for days on end, the theocracy has now demonstrated its resilience. But after his coffin was interred on Thursday, the Islamic Republic's struggle for survival continues. It is unpopular with a large majority of the population. And this problem is likely to become more acute with the new, hitherto invisible revolutionary leader, Mojtaba Khamenei.”

Salzburger Nachrichten criticises the US President’s diplomatic incompetence:

“Diplomacy does not just depend on talks and agreements on paper – it requires at least a modicum of trust. It is precisely this foundation that Trump is eroding when he denounces the Iranian regime as 'scum' and 'liars'. Regardless of what you may think of the regime in Tehran, if you want to resolve the conflict diplomatically you should refrain from publicly insulting your negotiating partner. That's diplomacy at its most basic.”

Despite its threats to the contrary, The Economist suspects Iran will soon return to the negotiating table:

“Two forces could yet restrain Iran's generals. The first is military reality. America's latest strikes underline that the war and the negotiations have been inconclusive. Iran's Gulf neighbours, meanwhile, appear more willing to support a tougher American approach. They are pressing partners in Europe and China to increase pressure on Tehran while quietly highlighting both their previous covert operations against Iran and their willingness to act again. The second is economic. Once the funeral crowds disperse, Iran will still face a fragile and isolated economy.”