Snap elections: who will govern the Netherlands?
The Dutch elect a new parliament today, Wednesday. The snap general election became necessary after the previous government collapsed at the beginning of June. Europe's press focuses on the future role of right-wing populist Geert Wilders.
Whoever comes second wins
For La Repubblica this election represents a special phenomenon:
“The far right is ahead in the polls, but nobody wants to govern with it anymore. It is closely followed by Timmermans' left and the centre. So whoever comes second wins. This is the paradox of the snap election taking place in the increasingly unstable Netherlands - the third elections in five years in which Geert Wilders' far-right party (PVV) is once again in the lead after its triumph in 2023. ... But none of the major parties want to form a coalition with the anti-EU, pro-Trump and anti-migration populist after he in June brought down the government of technocrat Dick Schoof, whom he had initially supported, by calling for unconstitutional measures against migrants.”
Wilders vows loyalty
The PVV leader is trying to boost his credibility, writes Causeur's Netherlands correspondent René ter Stege:
“In a rare move, at the end of the campaign Geert Wilders apologised for the behaviour of two of his MPs who used AI to create a photomontage showing [red-green front-runner] Frans Timmermans emptying a Dutchman's pocket to give the money to a woman wearing a veil. This gesture was interpreted as a guarantee of moderation aimed at potential coalition partners. ... The PVV leader has vowed that if his party emerges victorious from the polls again, he will be a 'loyal' partner this time round. The question is: will anyone believe him?”
Pursue strategy of isolating and imitating
De Standaard observes the chaos following the collapse of the coalition with right-wing populists and draws conclusions for Belgium:
“A pragmatic and determined government remains the strongest bulwark against undemocratic populism. Dutch political scientist Joost van Spanje proposes a strategy of 'isolating and imitating' to counter both the radical right and the radical left: exclude them clearly and decisively from power, copy policy points that mobilise voters and implement policies within the democratic consensus. ... In Belgium, the budget talks are the first major test. ... Confidence in democracy itself is at stake. The Netherlands showcases the worst-case scenario when politicians fail.”
Tackle the basic needs
NRC hopes for a coalition capable of governing with an eye to the big issues:
“The shift towards the centre which many pollsters and analysts expect this Wednesday must not cloud our view of what the Netherlands really needs: a solution to the housing shortage, an end to the nitrogen problem [according to a court ruling the government must take measures to reduce nitrogen emissions], focus on a sustainable future, defence, affordable and high-quality healthcare for all, equal opportunities in education and on the labour market, space for entrepreneurs. In short: the basic needs of a mature, prosperous democracy.”
Ukraine policy won't change
Regardless of the election results, the Netherlands will continue to support Ukraine, European Pravda is convinced:
“Despite the Europeans' fatigue with this war, support for Ukraine remains important to the Dutch. ... The leading political forces - GroenLinks-PvdA, D66, Volt, CDA, VVD and ChristenUnie - are all in favour of continuing military, financial and humanitarian aid. The centre-left parties are calling for the Netherlands to play a leading role in this support, while Wilders' right-wing populist PVV is confining itself to symbolic statements and arguing that the Netherlands has already 'done enough'. However, in view of the consensus in the country regarding the war in Ukraine, Wilders is unlikely to succeed in changing the Netherlands' course on his own.”
No obligation to work with the winner
Several parties are saying they won't work with Wilders this time round. Rightly so, says De Volkskrant:
“Every seat in parliament carries the same weight. ... Even if Wilders' party becomes the largest faction on Wednesday, but a large majority refuses to work with him, that stance would be completely legitimate in democratic terms ... After a year and a half of experimenting with the lame-duck Dick Schoof, we can safely conclude that a prime minister with his own political profile and a solid electoral mandate - larger than Wilders' - is crucial for the effectiveness of a new government and the country's image abroad.”
Fuelling fear and anger
Wilders has brought about a radical shift in the political discourse, Le Soir concludes:
“Is bringing the far right to power the best strategy for destroying it? This idea is sometimes floated, but the Netherlands has demonstrated just how ineffective and dangerous it can be. ... Geert Wilders has succeeded in spreading his ideas beyond his own voter base. Under 'his' government, migration issues have dominated the political agenda and had a lasting impact on Dutch politics. Today, most parties are promising to limit immigration in their election campaigns. ... In addition, the PVV has shifted the boundaries of what is politically acceptable. ... Geert Wilders has painted a bleak, almost apocalyptic image of a country in decline, and stigmatised certain sections of the population, using them as convenient scapegoats. In doing so, he has fuelled fear and anger.”
Fend off attack on democracy this time
Wilders has been poisoning the political debate for over a decade, political commentator Tom-Jan Meeus explains in NRC:
“The whole package - the cheering on of the autocrat Orbán, the normalisation of the Great Replacement [conspiracy] theory, the undermining of parliament, the calls for resistance, the repetition of propaganda - has contributed to the destabilisation of democracy since the end of 2015. ... It's one of the big questions of 2025: will the centrist parties succeed in fending off Wilders' attack on liberal democracy? The attack he began in 2015 and has continued ever since with the discipline of an accomplished propagandist?”